Strategy (MSTR), recently rebranded simply as Strategy, is locked in a standoff with the world’s most influential index provider. On December 17, 2025, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor sparked intense speculation by posting a photo on X alongside CEO Phong Le in front of what appeared to be a Morgan Stanley (MS) office, captioned: “Guess the ₿ank”.
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The move comes at a critical juncture as MSCI (MSCI) (Morgan Stanley Capital International) reviews a proposal to exclude “Digital Asset Treasuries” from its major equity benchmarks. This decision could trigger up to $15 billion in forced selling across the crypto-corporate sector. Strategy, which holds a staggering 671,268 BTC worth roughly $60 billion, currently represents nearly 75% of the total market capitalization at risk in this index shakeup.
Strategy Confronts the MSCI Index Exclusion Risk
The leadership at Strategy is currently in active discussions to prevent a mass exodus of passive capital. MSCI is weighing a new rule that would disqualify any company with more than 50% of its assets in digital currencies, categorizing them as investment funds rather than operating businesses.
Saylor and Le have countered with a 12-page formal objection, arguing that the 50% threshold is arbitrary and discriminatory, and that the firm uses its Bitcoin to power a sophisticated “Digital Credit” ecosystem rather than acting as a passive vehicle. A final decision from MSCI is expected by January 15, 2026, with JPMorgan (JPM) analysts warning that an exclusion could result in a $2.8 billion immediate outflow for MSTR alone.
Strategy’s $1.4 Billion Cash Reserve Shields Against Volatility
In a strategic move to appease institutional critics, Strategy has successfully established a $1.44 billion USD reserve to act as a battery for its Bitcoin reactor. This cash buffer, raised through equity offerings at a premium to the company’s net asset value, is designed to cover at least 21 to 24 months of interest payments and preferred dividends.
By de-risking its balance sheet, the company aims to prove it can withstand a “death spiral” where Bitcoin prices crash while debt obligations remain high. This shift toward traditional risk management is a direct response to the market’s recent wake-up call that saw Bitcoin retreat from its $126,000 peak to the $90,000 range.
Saylor’s “Guess the Bank” Tease Suggests an Institutional Alliance
The “Guess the Bank” post may be more than mere social media bravado; it likely signals a deepening relationship with Morgan Stanley’s wealth management arm. While MSCI is a separate entity, Morgan Stanley itself has become increasingly constructive on the asset class, with its Global Investment Committee recently recommending a 2% to 4% crypto allocation for growth-oriented portfolios.
The firm has already facilitated over $104 million in Bitcoin-linked structured notes and is reportedly looking for ways to integrate digital assets into its $2 trillion advisory platform. If Saylor secures a formal partnership, it could provide the institutional seal of approval needed to bypass the MSCI classification hurdles.
Is Strategy a Good Stock to Buy?
Turning to TipRanks, analyst data shows Wall Street remains firmly optimistic about Strategy (MSTR) despite the looming “index exclusion” and the volatility in Bitcoin. In total, 14 analysts have weighed in over the past three months, and the consensus rating sits at Strong Buy. Out of these calls, 12 analysts call the stock a Buy, two say a Hold, and none recommend a Sell.
The average 12-month MSTR price target comes in at $481.08, which implies roughly 204% upside from the recent close.
