Tesla (TSLA) shares have slipped about 4% since the company approved Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package on November 7. The pullback reflects concern about possible dilution and doubt about the big goals tied to the plan. Earlier this week, well-known investor Michael Burry called Tesla “ridiculously overvalued.” He also said Tesla issues enough new shares each year to dilute current holders by roughly 3.6% and warned that Musk’s new payout could make that dilution even worse.
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Meanwhile, Wall Street remains cautious, with the average price target pointing to about 11% downside from current levels. Some analysts worry about rising EV competition, dilution, and weak margins. Still, TSLA bulls see long-term promise in areas beyond cars, including robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot.
Analysts’ Views on Tesla Stock
Recently, TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli reiterated a Buy rating on Tesla with a $509 price target after testing Tesla’s RoboTaxi service in Austin. He took three rides covering nearly 40 miles at about $1.08 per mile. Michaeli said the system handled two tricky moments, emergency vehicles and a construction zone, with no real issues.
Following the trial, Michaeli said he believes Tesla is likely on schedule to begin removing safety drivers in Austin before year-end.
Meanwhile, Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh also remains positive, though he trimmed his Tesla price target to $475 from $485. Rakesh warned about possible pressure in the EV market in 2026, mainly due to reduced EV subsidies in major regions.
He expects the recent end of U.S. EV credits to weigh on sales, noting that the U.S. made up about 37% of Tesla’s Q3 revenue. He also said the 50% subsidy cut in China—Tesla’s second-largest market at 34% of Q3 sales—could add more pressure. Based on this, he now expects Tesla to deliver about 1.75 million EVs in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly lower than Street expectations. Even so, Rakesh said he remains upbeat about Tesla’s long-term growth outlook.
What Is the Prediction for TSLA Stock?
Analysts remain sidelined on Tesla’s long-term outlook. On TipRanks, TSLA stock has a Hold consensus rating based on 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and 10 Sell ratings. The average Tesla price target of $383.04 implies nearly 11% downside potential from current levels.
