Manufacturer Airbus Forecasts Surging Demand for Planes Despite Trade Woes

Airbus (EADSF) has ramped up its forecast for global airplane demand over the next 20 years despite current tariff trade tensions.

Middle Class Demand

In its Global Market Forecast for 2025, the European plane maker said 43,420 new aircraft needed to be delivered between 2025 and 2044, an increase of 2% from its previous rolling 20-year forecast issued a year ago.

That includes 42,450 passenger jets, up 2% from the previous forecast, and 970 factory-built freighters, up 3%.

Airbus was speaking before the fatal crash involving a Boeing (BA) Dreamliner in India today.

Airbus is forecasting that global passenger traffic will grow on average by 3.6% a year, driven by a 2.5% lift in GDP per year, bigger urban populations, and a rise in the global middle class, typically the demographic most likely to travel by air.

“There is certainly some turbulence thanks to the recent geopolitical and trade situation,” Antonio Da Costa, vice president for market analysis and forecast, said. “It is still very early days, nevertheless the early signals are giving us some level of hope.”

Tariff Turbulence

The airline industry has been battered in recent months as a result of the tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump as well as general global economic uncertainty hitting consumer and business travel confidence.

However, air transport tends to be resilient to such shocks as, even if under financial pressure, holidays abroad remain a priority for families. Airlines have also highlighted growing demand for premium travel despite the uncertainty.

Airbus officials said the latest forecasts assume that base tariffs of 10% imposed by the Trump administration on most imports would stay in place for a while.

Airbus raised its demand forecast for single-aisle planes like the A320neo family and competing Boeing 737 MAX, which account for four out of every five deliveries, by 2%. It expects 34,250 of them over 20 years, of which 56% would be additional capacity.

It also revised up its forecasts for wide-body passenger jet deliveries by 3% to 8,200 planes.

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