Madrigal Pharmaceuticals’ (MDGL) product, REZDIFFRA, garnered impressive Q4 sales with a compelling 61% growth on a mere 4% market penetration. This suggests immense potential for blockbuster success. Despite competition from other MASH therapies, REZDIFFRA’s unique combination of use and first-mover advantage has led analysts to project an astounding $515 million in sales by 2025, influenced by factors such as Medicare coverage, low market penetration, and a scheduled European launch. This forecast makes MDGL a potentially compelling option for investors interested in commercial-stage pharma stocks.
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A Blockbuster in the Making
Madrigal is a biopharmaceutical company that has developed a novel therapeutic approach for the treatment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH).
The company’s therapy, REZDIFFRA, has obtained accelerated approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for treating adults with moderate to advanced stages of liver fibrosis (stages F2 to F3) linked to NASH. This therapy is also currently under study in a Phase 3 trial for the treatment of NASH paired with compensated cirrhosis.
2024 marked a significant year for Madrigal, with FDA approval and launch of Rezdiffra, MAESTRO-NASH trial results published in The New England Journal of Medicine, and EMA’s acceptance of their Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) for Rezdiffra.
The company is poised to capitalize on additional growth opportunities and is preparing to extend its reach to Europe in the latter half of 2025. Rezdiffra has already been adopted by over 11,800 patients.
The anticipated MAESTRO-NASH OUTCOMES trial, sampling Rezdiffra on compensated cirrhosis patients, holds the potential to solidify Rezdiffra’s standing as the go-to treatment for F2 to F4 MASH and the only therapy with outcomes data within this decade.
Preliminary Results Are Positive
Based on the preliminary financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, Madrigal reported net sales between $100 million and $103 million in Q4 and between $177 million and $180 million for the full year.
The company’s year-end financials show considerable liquid assets, with approximately $931 million in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities.
Analysts Are Bullish
The stock has been upward, climbing roughly 26% over the past year. It trades in the upper half of its 52-week price range of $168.25 – $368.29 and shows mixed technicals, with the stock trading above longer-dated moving averages (100-day and 200-day).
Analysts covering the company have been bullish on MDGL stock. For instance, Evercore ISI analyst Liisa Bayko, a four-star analyst according to Tipranks’ ratings, recently reiterated an Outperform rating while raising the price target on the shares to $392 (from $360), noting increased revenue projections off the recent strong quarter.
Madrigal is rated a Strong Buy overall, based on the recent recommendations of 14 analysts. Their 12-month average price target for MDGL stock is $375.08, representing a potential upside of 27.73% from current levels.
MDGL in Review
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, a front-runner in MASH therapies, has made impressive strides with its novel treatment, REZDIFFRA. The treatment’s market penetration of 4% suggests significant upside potential. Madrigal closed 2024 on a high note, with growing net sales and a solid balance sheet. Madrigal presents an opportunity that’s hard to overlook for investors interested in commercial-stage pharma stocks.
