Macro analyst Luke Gromen is turning bearish on Bitcoin, warning of a potential drop to $40,000 because the crypto is failing to make new highs versus gold and technical signals are shifting.
Global macro analyst Luke Gromen is pulling back his support for Bitcoin, warning that the number-one crypto looks exposed and could potentially drop to the $40,000 range in 2026. This marks a big shift for Gromen, who has spent years bundling Bitcoin with gold (CM:XAUUSD) as the ultimate “debasement trade” hedge against governments printing money and weakening currencies.
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Gromen argues that the crypto’s risk-reward profile has worsened in the near term. He now believes gold and certain equities are doing a better job of expressing the core thesis that fiat currencies will lose real value. The key signals triggering this caution include Bitcoin’s recent failure to establish new highs versus gold, a breach of key technical moving averages, and growing fears surrounding quantum risk.
Macro Concerns Are Hitting Crypto First
The current macro jitters are causing a key divergence between Bitcoin and its traditional peer, gold. The debasement trade theory suggests investors move into scarce, non-fiat assets because policymakers will inevitably inflate away national debts. However, gold is currently seen as the safer, first-line refuge in times of acute stress, while Bitcoin often behaves more like a “risk-on” asset that benefits only after liquidity returns.
This price disconnect, combined with the low Buy-rating ratio among analysts and concerns about the AI industry’s valuation, suggests Bitcoin is losing its immediate appeal as a store of value. For Gromen, this makes Bitcoin a position that can and should be “sized down tactically” even if the long-term structural case for debasement remains intact.
Bitcoin Bulls Push Back
Bitcoin-focused analysts are pushing back hard against Gromen’s bearish call, arguing that his technical evidence is weak and that selling based on broken moving averages is a classic mistake made when markets are already depressed. On-chain analysts suggest that Gromen is relying too heavily on social media narratives rather than fundamental underlying blockchain data.
Despite the cautious macro outlook, the picture is not one of outright doom. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, after a sharp exodus last month, have recently swung back to modest net inflows, suggesting institutional demand is stabilizing. Ultimately, Gromen’s stance serves as a crucial reminder that even the biggest proponents of Bitcoin’s long-term value are willing to shed the asset tactically when the charts and macro narratives align against it.
