Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares have had a choppy ride in April, as the company finds itself cast as one of the leading stars of the Trump tariff reality television show.
With each policy twist out of Washington, NVDA’s stock has lurched in response – caught between investor optimism and escalating trade anxieties. The result? A 24% slide year-to-date, as markets wrestle with the geopolitical turbulence introduced by the 47th president.
The latest blow came last week, when the Trump administration informed Nvidia it must secure an export license to ship its H20 AI chips to China. The company subsequently informed investors that this would cause the company to take a $5.5 billion hit due to “inventory, purchase commitments, and related reserves.”
For top investor Henrik Alex, who is among 2% of TipRanks’ stock pros, this latest blow was another reason to doubt NVDA’s ability to rise above the trade turbulence – at least in the near future.
“With Nvidia now deeply entangled in the new U.S. administration’s trade war, headline risk has increased substantially,” cautions the 5-star investor.
Worse still, that $5.5 billion may just be the beginning. According to Alex, Nvidia had reportedly received around $18 billion in H20 orders from China in 2025 alone. With those pipelines now disrupted, he believes the company stands to lose out on “substantially” higher revenues in FY2026.
Adding fuel to the fire, Alex points to growing scrutiny around Nvidia chips used in the DeepSeek large language model, yet another potential flashpoint in what’s fast becoming a high-stakes pressure cooker.
“As the trade tensions with China continue to escalate on an almost daily basis, it’s increasingly difficult to envision a short-term solution,” Alex opined.
Amid this environment, projections of 50% revenue and earnings growth for FY2026 seem unrealistic to Alex. The investor is not expecting the narrative to shift for the better anytime soon.
“Given persistent headline risk, I would expect Nvidia’s shares to remain under pressure for the time being,” concludes Alex, who rates NVDA shares a Sell. (To watch Alex’s track record, click here)
“Agree to disagree” appears to be the sentiment on Wall Street. With 37 Buy and 5 Hold recommendations, NVDA claims a Strong Buy consensus rating. Its 12-month average price target of $169.30 has an upside potential of ~67%. (See NVDA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.