Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is gearing up to report its Q2 earnings on August 7, and signs indicate that the pharma giant remains poised for further growth, especially as it continues to capitalize on the booming weight loss market.
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That is the conclusion reached by J.P. Morgan analyst Chris Schott, who sees an “attractive setup” for the stock heading into earnings. His confidence stems from the company’s continued momentum in its GLP-1 franchise, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Schott anticipates a strong second quarter, with upside potential fueled by robust TRx growth trends across both drugs. The analyst projects total sales of $14.8 billion – up 30% year-over-year and $370 million above consensus – driven largely by GLP-1 sales, which he expects to reach $8.8 billion, representing 60% growth from the prior year. Zepbound now captures an estimated 60–65% of the obesity market, while Mounjaro continues gaining share, helped by its expanding international rollout.
On the profitability front, Schott models EPS at $5.49, slightly below consensus due to higher operating expenses tied to a growing late-stage pipeline and increased marketing investments. Still, he sees continued TRx growth into Q3, despite some anticipated deceleration from CVS formulary changes, with a reacceleration likely by Q4. His full-year outlook remains bullish, forecasting $60.8 billion in revenue and $22.09 in EPS, both ahead of consensus, and suggesting the company may eventually raise guidance again in 2025, even if cautiously.
In addition, Schott continues to see a “favorable set up” into the upcoming Phase 3 obesity data for orforglipron – Eli Lilly’s once-daily oral GLP-1 candidate – with the analyst’s base case expecting weight loss in the range of 13–15%. While its tolerability may not match Zepbound, it appears comparable to Wegovy, which Schott believes could be a positive for the stock.
All told, Schott continues to view LLY as one of his top picks, citing the company’s durable growth profile, minimal patent expiration risks, and strong visibility well into the next decade. With shares trading at 36x and 26x his 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates – which he considers conservative – the analyst sees the current level as an “attractive entry point.”
To this end, Schott assigns an Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating to LLY shares, backed by a $1,100 price target. That implies a potential upside of 41% from current levels. (To watch Schott’s track record, click here)
Elsewhere on the Street, sentiment remains positive, with 15 additional Buys, 2 Holds, and 1 Sell combining for a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target of $1,006.27 suggests a one-year gain of ~29%. (See LLY stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.