Nio (NYSE:NIO) is seeing a pickup in momentum, with its latest offerings driving an uptick in sales. Over the past quarter, boosted by the launches of both the L90 and ES8, sales have continued to improve.
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Both the L90 and ES8 have seen an improvement in competitiveness among peer NEV models, mainly due to advantages in price and size, resulting in stronger orders and higher delivery volumes. The L90 delivered 10,600 and 11,000 units in its first and second months, respectively, compared with 800 and 4,300 for the L60.
Goldman Sachs analyst Tina Hou estimates its monthly volume will stabilize at around 8,000 in 2026. For the ES8 facelift, Hou expects a stabilized monthly volume of about 5,000 in 2026, reflecting its improved competitiveness compared with 600 for the previous version.
Looking forward, Nio has accelerated its new-model pipeline into 2026, planning two launches (the L80 and ES9) along with a facelift of the ES7. Given the strong showing from the L90 and ES8, Hou expects these additions to “contribute further to the current positive sales momentum.”
The Onvo L80 is a new large five-seat SUV positioned between the L60 and L90 and aimed at family customers, with Hou expecting volume at about 80% of the L90 based on the relative performance of Li Auto’s L8 vs. L9.
Hou also expects the ES7 facelift, a large five-seat SUV positioned as a smaller and more affordable alternative to the ES8, to achieve a stabilized monthly volume of 6,000 units, compared with 5,000 for the ES8.
The ES9 will be Nio’s new flagship SUV, replacing the old ES8 as the brand’s most premium model. Hou expects its stabilized monthly volume will be about 1,000 units, roughly in line with the old ES8, but with a price tag RMB 100,000 higher than the new ES8. Factoring in these launches, the analyst now forecasts 2026 volume growth of 43% year-over-year, up from her prior 27% estimate.
This stronger product trajectory is also lifting expectations around profitability. Driven by “higher volume and scale economics,” Hou now sees gross margins running 2%–3% higher than before. As a result, her 2026–2030 non-GAAP EPS forecast has been revised upward from RMB -5.14 to RMB 2.28, to RMB -2.05 to RMB 3.32. The analyst also expects accumulated free cash flow for the same period to jump to RMB 22 billion from RMB 11 billion previously. Hou now anticipates Nio will achieve full-year non-GAAP EBIT break-even in 2028, one year earlier than her previous estimate of 2029.
Accordingly, Hou has raised her price target from $4.3 to $7, although the new figure implies shares will remain rangebound for now. Given “limited upside,” Hou assigns NIO shares a Neutral rating. (To watch Hou’s track record, click here)
6 other analysts join Hou on the sidelines, and with an additional 7 Buys and 1 Sell, the stock claims a Moderate Buy consensus rating. However, the $6.72 average target implies the shares will shed 4% over the coming year. (See Nio stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.