Last week, I framed Shopify’s (SHOP) setup as a tug-of-war, where you have easing-rate hopes on one side and tariff noise on the other, all while DHL’s new integration quietly improves cross-border execution. I’m picking up that same thread, only this week, three fresh pieces matter more than any headline: (1) a small but telling design-talent pickup, (2) a trio of macro signals that leaned cooler, and (3) a fast-moving legal twist on tariffs that could reshape merchant costs into the holidays.
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That’s the mix that, in my view, actually moves the SHOP story from here. As for me, I remain stoutly Bullish on the stock with a preference for utilizing options markets and writing puts.
Shopify Snaps Up Design Talent to Power Its Next Growth Push
Just last week, Shopify acquired New York design studio Molly and folded its seven-person team into a new internal Product Design Studio. On paper, this may seem insignificant, but I believe it will prove to be significant leverage in practice. Checkout polishing, AI-assisted merchandising, and faster UI turns are where conversion wins live. The announcement came directly from Molly, with Shopify’s design chief describing the studio as an “internal agency.” If you’ve ever run an e-commerce site before Black Friday, you know design speed is product speed.
Meanwhile, DHL’s integration with Shopify, which I discussed last week, is live for U.S. merchants, adding DHL eCommerce’s Parcel International services and DHL Express Worldwide inside the Shopify workflow. Look, it’s not flashy, but cheaper, more predictable labels are oxygen when tariffs and fuel surcharges wag the tail. DHL also flagged a broader rollout across 2025–26, which matters for sellers leaning into cross-border demand.
Cooling Jobs, Wobbly Factories, and Tame Inflation
A soft jobs market, weak factory output, and easing inflation really is a macro mix that actually favors Shopify. When looking at the macro picture, SHOP has much to smile at. July’s jobs numbers show JOLTS openings falling to about 7.18 million, the lowest in roughly 10 months, which could be one more nudge toward a September Fed cut. A cooler jobs market eases wage pressure, but, crucially for Shopify, it also lowers the odds of “higher for longer,” which supports valuations and reduces borrowing costs for merchants carrying inventory into Q4.
On the goods side, ISM Manufacturing ticked up to 48.7 in August, better, but still contraction territory, while new orders improved to 51.4, a leading hint that inventory rebuilds could follow. For Shopify’s merchants, better in-stock rates translate into fewer “out of stock” dead ends and higher conversion. I’m not calling a complete turn, but it’s a healthier composition than July.
Inflation remains manageable, too, as the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge ran 2.6% year-over-year in July (core 2.9%). That leaves the door open for a careful cut if Friday’s jobs data corroborates the slowdown. E-commerce thrives when consumers feel their real wages stretch, ad budgets don’t get re-inflated, and working-capital lines for SMBs get a little cheaper.
Tariff Courtroom Drama Could Rewrite SHOP’s Holiday Playbook
Here’s the curveball, especially for potential investors. A federal appeals court ruled 7–4 that most of President Trump’s broad IEEPA-based tariffs are unlawful. Nevertheless, it stayed the ruling until mid-October to allow a Supreme Court appeal, which the administration has now pursued.
In other words, for merchants, tariff uncertainty persists into peak season, but the range of outcomes has now widened. If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling and tariffs are unwound, landed costs for many Shopify sellers would fall, and their margin math would improve. If the tariffs stay, the DHL/Express playbook and pricing agility remain essential.
All Eyes on Jobs, CPI, and the Fed
Three dates deserve a star on your calendar if you are following Shopify. First, tomorrow’s August jobs report will, as per usual, roil the markets, including SHOP stock. A cooler print, whether via a softer payroll number or a tick up in unemployment, would harden the case for a September cut and generally support risk appetite in high-multiple names like Shopify. A re-acceleration would do the opposite by reviving “higher for longer.”
Second, next week’s CPI figures serve as a key inflation checkpoint before the Fed’s meeting. If service inflation behaves as expected, it validates the 2.6% PCE trend and reduces the odds that shipping fuel surcharges and ad auctions will re-inflate in Q4. A hot print would reopen the debate on how quickly the Fed can ease monetary policy.
Third, Retail Sales drop the morning the Fed convenes (Sept 16), followed by the FOMC decision (Sept 16–17). I’ll be watching the non-store line. Essentially, strength there tends to rhyme with Shopify’s GMV. The Fed’s base-case path, per market and sell-side chatter, is a cautious 25-bp step with data-dependent language. That combination would be beneficial for both multiples and SMB working capital costs on the platform.
A Premium SHOP Price for Promised Growth
On consensus, SHOP trades around ~97x forward EPS and ~16.2x forward sales, well above the sector’s ~22x and ~3.2x, which keeps the bar high for execution. With analysts modeling low-20s revenue growth in the near term, that multiple depends on Shopify converting topline momentum into durable margin expansion. As discussed in my prior analyses, I think that’s entirely possible.
Is Shopify a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Wall Street remains fairly bullish on Shopify, with the stock carrying a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 19 Buy and 13 Hold recommendations over the past three months. Impressively, not a single analyst rates the stock a Sell. In the meantime, SHOP’s average stock price target of $164.12, relatively unchanged from last week, suggests ~13% upside from current levels.
Still Betting on Shopify
Shopify is focusing on levers within its control. Initiatives like design velocity through Molly and enhanced cross-border capabilities via DHL highlight this strategy. Meanwhile, the macro backdrop is leaning toward a more accommodative policy stance, with tariffs now appearing less like a gradual drag and more like a binary, court-driven risk.
If labor data cools and CPI stays tame, that would provide a sentiment boost and support GMV heading into the holiday season. Conversely, if jobs remain firm and inflation flares, valuation pressure will resurface, leaving execution—conversion, international expansion, and B2B—to shoulder more of the upside case. For now, the balance of signals still favors demand support over demand destruction.