Leading Economic Indicators Signal Slower Growth Ahead

The Conference Board released its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for March 2025. The index declined by 0.7%, dropping to 100.5 (2016=100). This follows a revised 0.2% decrease in February, indicating potential economic challenges on the horizon. While the six-month contraction rate has improved, falling 1.2% through March compared to a 2.3% drop in the previous six-month period, the overall trend suggests economic momentum is waning.

About the Leading Economic Index

The LEI is a forecasting tool frequently used to anticipate turning points in the business cycle by about seven months. It combines ten economic indicators designed to signal changes in economic conditions before they become widely apparent:

• Manufacturing hours and new orders
• Unemployment insurance claims
• Building permits
• Stock market performance
• Interest rate spreads
• Consumer expectations
• Credit conditions

These indicators offer investors, businesses, and policymakers valuable insights for planning purposes. The recent decline suggests caution, particularly regarding sectors sensitive to trade policies and consumer confidence.

The Latest Index Results

“March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements,” explained Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board. These key areas of concern include declining consumer expectations, the largest monthly stock price drop since September 2022, and softening manufacturing orders.

Despite these warning signs, Zabinska-La Monica emphasized that “the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start.” However, The Conference Board has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast downward to 1.6%.

This reduced growth projection largely reflects anticipated impacts from deepening trade wars, which could trigger higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, reduced investment and spending, and a weakening labor market.

While the data points to slowing economic activity rather than imminent recession, the cumulative effect of multiple declining indicators signals that growth challenges may persist through 2025, especially if trade tensions continue to escalate.

Key Takeaways

The recent decline in the Leading Economic Index suggests the economic landscape faces challenges. Although this does not signify an imminent recession, slowing economic momentum indicates growth challenges, particularly with ongoing trade tensions and their potential economic impact. With a revised GDP growth forecast of 1.6% for 2025, stakeholders should prepare for further uncertainties from the economic environment.