EV makers Rivian Automotive (RIVN) and Lucid Group (LCID) are set to report their Q3 earnings this week on November 4 and 5, respectively. While electric vehicles (EVs) represent the future of transportation, the industry faces hurdles like high production costs, rising tariffs, expiring tax credits, and potential policy shifts under a Trump administration. As Q3 earnings approach, investors are watching closely to see which stock offers stronger upside potential.
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So far in 2025, LCID stock is down more than 40%, while RIVN stock managed a modest 2% gain.
What Analysts Expect from Rivian’s Q3 Earnings
Wall Street analysts expect Rivian to report a loss of $0.74 per share in Q3 as compared to $0.97 in the same quarter a year ago. Meanwhile, revenue is projected to climb 73% year over year to $1.51 billion, supported by strong deliveries.
Last month, Rivian announced Q3 deliveries of 13,201 vehicles, up 32% from last year, beating expectations as many customers rushed to buy before the EV tax credit expired. In Q2, Rivian delivered 10,661 vehicles. Looking ahead, the company trimmed its full-year delivery guidance to 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles, down from an earlier projection of up to 46,000 units.
Analysts Remain Cautious on RIVN
On Wall Street, analysts warn that the loss of federal EV tax credits could weigh on demand for Rivian’s upcoming R2 SUV, potentially forcing the company to lower prices and absorb larger losses. Overall, sentiment remains cautious, with many analysts uncertain about Rivian’s long-term growth prospects.
Ahead of its Q3 results, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman reiterated a Sell rating, projecting a downside of over 25% from current levels and citing concerns over Rivian’s lower full-year delivery forecast.
In contrast, five-star-rated analyst Stephen Gengaro of Stifel Nicolaus remains bullish, keeping a Buy rating and forecasting an 18% upside from current levels.
What to Expect from Lucid’s Q3 Earnings
For Lucid, Wall Street expects the company to post a Q3 loss of $2.30 per share, an improvement from last year’s $2.80 loss. At the same time, revenue is projected to climb 85% year over year to about $370.6 million, according to Lucid’s TipRanks Stock Forecasts Page.
In October, Lucid reported that its Q3 deliveries rose 47% from the previous quarter. However, the company still missed analysts’ expectations, delivering fewer than the 4,286 vehicles projected by Wall Street.
Looking ahead, Lucid’s growth outlook appears positive. The company plans to roll out a new midsize EV platform in 2026 that will offer more affordable models and improve manufacturing efficiency. It’s also strengthening its U.S. supply chain with new deals for key materials like graphite, nickel, and manganese, plus a battery recycling program to reduce reliance on imports and minimize tariff risks.
Analysts See Higher Growth for LCID
Stifel’s Gengaro has a Hold rating on LCID stock, suggesting an upside of over 18%. Last month, he also raised his price target from $19.63 to $21. Previously, Gengaro noted that ongoing market volatility and challenges impact the EV sector. While he remains confident in Lucid’s strong technology and products like the Air sedan and Gravity SUV, he noted the company will likely need more funding in the coming years. He’s waiting for clearer updates on Gravity SUV sales and the midsize EV launch before turning more bullish.
In addition, Cantor Fitzgerald top-rated analyst Andres Sheppard believes the midsize EV platform, expected to launch in late 2026, could be a pivotal milestone, helping Lucid scale production and improve margins. Sheppard has a Hold rating on LCID stock.
LCID vs. RIVN: Which EV Stock Offers Higher Upside, According to Analysts?
Using TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool, we compared LCID and RIVN to see which EV stock analysts favor. Both stocks carry a Hold rating. Rivian’s price target of $13.69 suggests a potential 7% upside, while Lucid’s stock price target of $25.0 implies a 52.35% upside from current levels.
Conclusion
Both Lucid and Rivian face challenges as they head into Q3 earnings, from high costs to shifting EV incentives. While Rivian shows stronger delivery growth and improving efficiency, Lucid’s upcoming Gravity SUV and midsize EV launch could unlock future potential. For now, LCID appears better positioned as a longer-term bet, according to analysts.