E-mobility is clearly the future of transportation, but the road ahead isn’t without speed bumps. High production costs, rising tariffs, expiration of key EV tax credits, and shifting policies under a Trump administration could slow the industry’s growth trajectory. Amid this backdrop, Lucid Group (LCID) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN) are fighting for a lasting place on the road. In this article, we’ll compare Lucid and Rivian to help you decide which EV stock might be the smarter buy for the future.
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Manufacturers such as Rivian and Lucid are feeling the impact of the Trump administration’s rollback of pro-EV incentives under its “Big, Beautiful Bill.” So far in 2025, LCID stock is down more than 35%, while Rivian shares managed a modest 2% gain.
What Investors Should Know About Lucid’s Growth Strategy
Lucid’s lineup now includes the Air sedan and the new Gravity SUV. The company delivered 3,309 vehicles in Q2 2025, up 38.2% from a year ago and its sixth straight record quarter.
Looking ahead, the company has several growth drivers. A new midsize EV platform due in 2026 will target lower price points than the Air and Gravity, widening its customer base and cutting production costs. The company is also strengthening its supply chain with U.S. deals for graphite, nickel, and manganese, plus a battery-recycling partnership, all aimed at lowering import reliance and tariff risk.
Lucid is also entering autonomous driving. In July, the company signed a six-year deal with Uber (UBER) to supply 20,000 self-driving vehicles and secured a $300 million investment as part of the agreement.
That said, Lucid faces near-term challenges. The company trimmed its 2025 production forecast to 18,000–20,000 vehicles because of tariff pressures. Even with cost cuts and supply-chain tweaks, management still expects those tariffs to squeeze profit margins for the full year.
Rivian Faces Slower Growth
In contrast to Lucid, Rivian’s R1T and R1S models are designed for adventure enthusiasts, featuring rugged exteriors and off-road capabilities. In the last quarter, Rivian delivered 10,661 vehicles, above Lucid’s total but down from 13,790 a year earlier. Still, the company expects Q3 to be its strongest delivery quarter across both consumer and commercial segments. However, Rivian lowered its full-year EBITDA outlook to a loss of $2.0–$2.25 billion, deeper than its earlier forecast of $1.7–$1.9 billion.
Turning to Wall Street, analysts caution that losing federal EV tax credits could hurt demand for Rivian’s upcoming R2 SUV, possibly leading to price cuts and deeper losses. Overall, many remain wary of the company’s long-term outlook.
Recently, analyst Daniel Roeska at Bernstein reiterated his Sell rating on RIVN stock, predicting over 40% downside risk from current levels. Roeska flagged several challenges for Rivian, including higher tariff-related costs, the loss of emission-credit revenue, and the expected expiration of EV purchase incentives in October.
LCID vs. RIVN: Which EV Stock Offers Higher Upside, According to Analysts?
Using TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool, we compared LCID and RIVN to see which EV stock analysts favor. Both stocks carry a Hold rating. Rivian’s price target of $13.89 suggests a potential 2.74% upside, while Lucid’s price target of $30.30 implies a 57% upside from current levels.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Lucid and Rivian cater to different segments of the EV market, which is reflected in their stock outlooks. Lucid focuses on luxury and efficiency with its Air sedan, appealing to high-end buyers, while Rivian targets adventure and utility with rugged trucks and SUVs. For investors, LCID stock offers more than 50% upside potential, according to analysts.