Every quarter, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) finds itself at the center of the market’s attention – its delivery numbers are scrutinized for clues about both the company’s momentum and the electric vehicle industry at large.
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Heading into the second quarter, expectations were muted, with many bracing for another rough patch. Yet, Tesla’s latest figures told a more nuanced story. While deliveries didn’t quite meet Wall Street’s projections, they also weren’t the disappointment some had feared.
The company delivered 384,122 vehicles in the quarter, falling shy of the Street’s forecast for 389,000 vehicles. The total improved on the 336,681 vehicles the company delivered in Q1, but represented a 13.5% drop vs. the 443,956 units delivered during the same quarter last year, a year-over-year decline similar to the one seen in 1Q25.
Tesla delivered 373,835 vehicles from its core lineup – the Model Y crossover and Model 3 sedan – while its other models accounted for 13,409 units.
Given the Street “whisper numbers” had Tesla delivering only ~365,000 vehicles, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives thinks the haul came in “better than feared as the company saw success with its Model Y refresh cycle in the quarter.”
And although Tesla had faced considerable challenges in China in recent quarters due to intensifying competition in the EV market, June marked something of a turnaround, with sales rising for the first time in eight months, driven by stronger demand for the refreshed Model Y. Despite the influx of lower-cost models from Chinese automakers like BYD, Nio, and Xpeng, Ives thinks the recent upgrades to the Model Y have “spurred increased demand.” The accelerated production ramp-up in Shanghai for this refreshed version also highlighted the company’s ability to meet “rising demand in the marquee region.”
The better-than-feared delivery haul has Ives – a fully-fledged TSLA bull – in a buoyant mood.
“If Musk continues to lead and remain in the driver’s seat, we believe Tesla is on a path to an accelerated growth path over the coming years with deliveries expected to ramp in the back-half of 2025 following the Model Y refresh cycle,” Ives opined.
The delivery announcement comes against a backdrop of Musk and Trump renewing their public spat over the “big beautiful bill.” That, says Ives, has sparked further frustration amongst investors, fueling concerns that a Trump administration could take a tougher stance on government spending linked to Tesla – particularly in areas critical to its autonomous future, such as AV regulations that impact Robotaxis and Cybercabs.
Nevertheless, Ives remains confident Tesla has a bright future ahead, but thinks Musk needs to bring his A-game to proceedings.
“Tesla’s future is in many ways the brightest it’s ever been in our view given autonomous, FSD, robotics, and many other technology innovations now on the horizon with 90% of the valuation being driven by autonomous and robotics over the coming years but Musk needs to focus on driving Tesla and not putting his political views first,” the analyst summed up.
All told, Ives remains firmly bullish on TSLA, assigning the stock an Outperform (i.e., Buy) rating and backing it up with a Street-high $500 price target, implying a potential upside of 70% from where the shares currently trade. (To watch Ives’ track record, click here)
As for the broader analyst crowd, opinions are far from unanimous: the Street’s split, with 13 analysts siding with the bulls (Buy), another 13 taking a more cautious approach (Hold), and 9 sitting firmly in the bear camp (Sell). Altogether, the consensus rating on TSLA lands at Hold (i.e., Neutral), and the average price target comes in at $293.09, suggesting share will stay range-bound for the foreseeable future. (See TSLA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.