JPMorgan Holds $94.5B Net Interest Forecast as Dimon’s Exit Looms

JPMorgan (JPM) stuck to its guns on Monday, reaffirming its massive $94.5 billion net interest income forecast for 2025—despite Wall Street’s hunger for fresh guidance and any hint on Jamie Dimon’s looming exit.

The update came during the bank’s annual Investor Day, where JPMorgan also held firm on a 17% return on tangible common equity target, saying it’s ready to weather “a range of circumstances.” CFO Jeremy Barnum told investors the outlook is “probably slightly better” than it was last quarter. Translation? Still solid, even as the macro clouds swirl.

JPMorgan Embraces AI while Bracing for Uncertainty

While reaffirming guidance, Barnum pointed to new tailwinds. Rate cuts? The bank’s model now only assumes two in 2025. A weakening U.S. dollar and growing tariff threats were flagged as key risks. “The current level of uncertainty is reflected in our reserves,” Barnum said. He estimated a $3 billion reserve build if the U.S. hits a moderate recession.

But JPMorgan’s not just playing defense. It’s charging ahead on tech. Barnum called JPM “an early mover in AI,” using tools for fraud detection, coding, and customer service. “We can’t afford to fall behind,” he added. He also hinted that peak modernization spend may be behind them.

Dimon’s Succession Watch Keeps Wall Street Guessing

What Wall Street really wanted? A name. Dimon has said he’ll step down by 2029, but Monday’s event didn’t offer a clear heir. All eyes are on Marianne Lake, head of Consumer & Community Banking, who did take the stage to discuss credit metrics and outlooks.

Lake warned that the distance between a “soft landing” and a mild recession is “somewhat narrow.” JPMorgan now sees its base case sitting between the two. She also flagged rising credit card charge-off rates—up to 3.9% expected in 2026.

What Is the Future Price of JPM Stock?

According to TipRanks, JPMorgan holds a Moderate Buy rating based on 19 analyst reviews in the last three months. Of those, 12 call it a Buy, seven rate it Hold, and none have issued a Sell.

The average 12-month JPM price target sits at $268.24—just a 1.37% upside from the last close at $264.61. But the spread is wide. The most bullish target hits $330, while the low-end forecast sees it dropping to $220.

So while analysts are cautiously optimistic, they’re clearly split on how much upside JPMorgan has left—especially as macro risks, rate paths, and leadership transition all remain up in the air.

See more JPM analyst ratings