JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Says ‘Fog of Uncertainty’ to Hang over Markets for Rest of 2025

Analysts at U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are forecasting a difficult second half of the year for stocks.

“We are not out of the woods yet on U.S. trade policies,” writes JPMorgan analyst Fabio Bassi, head of the lender’s cross-asset strategy, in a note to clients. The analyst adds that “self-inflicted policy damage (is) expected to take U.S. close to a recession” in the latter half of 2025.

JPMorgan, the world’s largest commercial bank, stresses that regardless of short-term changes to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, import duties are likely to remain higher than forecast at the start of this year. As such, Bassi writes that a “fog of uncertainty” is likely to hang over global stock markets for the remainder of 2025, with equity prices slumping or trading sideways in coming months.

The note to clients is titled: “When will the fog of uncertainty lift?”

‘Pain Trade’

Of course, JPMorgan acknowledges that markets have proven to be resilient to Trump’s import tariffs so far, bouncing back from a 20% decline in April to retest all-time highs. That said, JPMorgan Chase warns that a “pain trade” is likely on the horizon for investors, with a U.S. recession the biggest risk to markets in coming months.

Bassi and his team also remain bearish on the U.S. dollar and see limited upside for gold moving forward given its record run over the past 18 months. JPMorgan notes that much will depend on the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and whether the central bank is prompted to lower interest rates in response to an economic decline and deteriorating labor market.

Is JPM Stock a Buy?

The stock of JPMorgan Chase has a consensus Moderate Buy rating among 21 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on 14 Buy and seven Hold recommendations issued in the last three months. The average JPM price target of $279.40 implies 3.44% upside from current levels.

Read more analyst ratings on JPM stock