There is no denying the bold vision of eVTOL operators such as Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY), which seeks to bring the future one step closer by introducing flying taxis into major cosmopolitan areas. The stock has delivered a rem 167% gain over the past year, yet it also underscores the sector’s volatility – retreating 36% from its August peak. Such swings serve as a reminder that while the promise is lofty, the path forward remains turbulent.
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That volatility is easier to stomach when paired with steady progress on the ground. During the last quarter, the company completed 21 full-transition flights in Dubai (i.e. vertical takeoff followed by transition to forward flight) and advanced to the fourth stage of the FAA type certification process (out of five). It also bolstered its global footprint by acquiring Blade Air and its licenses to operate in heliports throughout the U.S. and Europe.
Strengthening the story further are JOBY’s heavyweight partnerships – Toyota, Delta, and Virgin Atlantic – plus a potentially $1 billion agreement with Saudi conglomerate Abdul Latif Jameel.
The question now is whether this momentum can lift JOBY stock higher, or whether investors should brace for more turbulence?
The bull argument gets some backing from Needham analyst Chris Pierce, who is jazzed by the various wins that JOBY has been accumulating.
“JOBY has been stacking up positive headlines at a dizzying pace, with piloted flight helping debunk the science project bear thesis across the eVTOL space, and repeated piloted flight and ramping aircraft production momentum communicating confidence into ultimate FAA certification,” exclaims the analyst.
Pierce notes that JOBY’s position as the industry leader seems safe and sound, barring a misstep, while it has excelled with execution during 2025. The analyst points out that JOBY listed two key goals in February – to begin flight testing in Dubai by the middle of 2025 and start FAA Type Inspection Authorization flights within twelve months. It is “batting 1.000” on these objectives, exclaims Pierce, citing the previous flights in Dubai and the company’s plans for FAA pilots to fly JOBY’s aircraft early next year.
Of course, this leadership position comes at a price, acknowledges Pierce, explaining the high multiples where JOBY’s share price finds itself. In addition, “headline fatigue” is thus a real possibility, as are dilutive capital raises for the still unprofitable company as it navigates the many uncertainties required to ferry commercial passengers to-and-for.
None of this deters Pierce, however, who rates JOBY shares a Buy, along with a $22 price target, implying gains of 55%. (To watch Pierce’s track record, click here)
J.P. Morgan analyst Bill Peterson is less forgiving when it comes to the cloudy skies, which could yet contain a fair amount of turbulence.
“We think longer-term success is already priced in, although we acknowledge the company’s solid progress and prudent approach around certification and commercialization,” explains the analyst.
It is the long and winding road to commercial operations that is giving Peterson pause, as the analyst expects multiple capital raises over the coming few years as the loss-making business strives to break even.
While the commercial opportunity should be quite hefty – $200 to $300 billion, eventually – this is a few decades out into the future. Therefore, patience is needed at this stage, along with no small amount of tolerance for risk, “given largely unproven business models, certification risk, and risks associated with lower than expected adoption rates, including as a result of competition.”
Peterson is therefore rating JOBY as Underweight (i.e. Sell), along with a $7 price target, implying losses of ~48%. (To watch Peterson’s track record, click here)
While these two analysts present the bull and bear case for JOBY, it seems as if most of Wall Street is comfortable straddling the middle ground. With 5 Holds – coupled with 1 Buy from Pierce and 1 Sell from Peterson – JOBY has a consensus Hold (i.e. Neutral) rating. Its 12-month average price target of $12.58 has a ~6% downside from current levels. (See JOBY stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.