Joby Aviation (JOBY) is a leading player in the emerging eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft industry. However, last month’s weak earnings report and widening losses have raised concerns about execution and timing, pushing the stock down about 22% over the past month.
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Despite this pullback, the shares still trade at a relative premium. Joby’s strong cash position and leadership in the sector underpin its long-term potential as it moves toward commercialization. While I remain Bullish on the tech company, I would wait for the current negative price momentum to subside before considering a new entry point.
Leading the eVTOL Race
Joby Aviation develops electric aircraft for urban passenger transport—often referred to as flying taxis. The company is a front-runner in the eVTOL sector, having completed about 70% of the Federal Aviation Administration’s certification process required for commercial operations. This progress places Joby ahead of rivals such as Archer Aviation (ACHR), Lilium (LILMF), and Volocopter, which remain in earlier stages of approval.
Most recently, the company has formed strategic alliances with major corporations, including Toyota (TM) for engineering expertise, Uber (UBER) for ride-sharing platform integration, and Delta Air Lines (DAL) for route access. Joby has also partnered with ANA Holdings (ALNPY) to expand into Japanese markets. These relationships have provided technical knowledge, operational support, and customer access that smaller competitors in the space lack.
A new partnership with L3Harris Technologies (LHX) opens military applications for hybrid gas-turbine aircraft variants. This diversification expands Joby’s potential market beyond civilian transportation.
Joby recently completed the first piloted electric air taxi flight between two U.S. airports, demonstrating operational readiness. Further, the company is acquiring Blade Air Mobility’s passenger business, gaining access to over 50,000 existing customers and established infrastructure in New York and Europe. It is also expanding its manufacturing facility in Marina, California, to double production capacity.
Disappointing Recent Financial Results
Joby’s Q2 2025 financial results fell short of expectations. Revenue dropped 46% year-over-year to a measly $15,000, coming entirely from flight services partnerships and government contracts. The company generated no commercial passenger revenue.
Net losses of $324.67 million represented a 163% increase from the same period last year. Earnings per share were -$0.41, far worse than analyst expectations of -$0.19. This significant miss surprised investors and contributed to the stock’s continued downtrend since late July.
Despite mounting losses, Joby maintains financial stability with $991 million in cash reserves. The company reduced its quarterly cash burn slightly to $112 million, down 10% from the previous quarter. This improvement demonstrates some cost discipline, but Joby still incurs substantial capital expenditures while developing its aircraft and preparing for commercial launch.
On the recent earnings call, management acknowledged high cash burn rates and execution risks while maintaining confidence in their commercialization timelines. Commercial passenger service remains at least one year away, making profitability dependent on successful regulatory approval and market adoption.
Negative Valuation and Momentum Metrics
With negative earnings, traditional valuation metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios are not applicable. Still, its valuation appears stretched with the company’s price-to-book ratio of 12.75x far exceeding that of its sector peers, which trade at 3x book value, and that of its closest competitor, Archer, which trades at 3.24x.
The current valuation suggests market participants assume Joby will successfully navigate regulatory approval, achieve operational scale, and capture significant market share in urban air mobility. However, these outcomes are far from guaranteed, and any hiccup would likely translate to heightened share price volatility (as evidenced by the recent downturn).
The stock shows ongoing negative price momentum, bearishly trading below its shorter-term moving averages. Momentum tends to feed on itself, so it would not be surprising to see that trend continue.
Is Joby a Good Stock to Buy Now?
Analysts following the company maintain a cautious outlook on the stock. JOBY is rated a Hold based on 1 Buy, 4 Hold, and 1 Sell recommendations. Furthermore, the consensus price target of $12.40 indicates ~8% downside from current levels.
On the bullish end of the spectrum, Needham’s Chris Pierce raised his price target on the shares from $10 to $22 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing the recent flight success and ramping aircraft production.
Meanwhile, analysts from Canaccord, H.C. Wainwright, and Morgan Stanley (MS) have all downgraded JOBY to a Hold, citing its healthy valuation and uncertainties regarding the successful integration of Blade’s operations.
Joby Aviation’s Promise Meets Market Volatility
Joby’s regulatory progress, strategic partnerships, substantial cash reserves, recent acquisitions, and facility expansion all support the company’s path toward a successful commercial launch. Risks do linger, though. Widening losses, a stretched valuation, and uncertainty around market adoption warrant caution. The stock has been highly volatile, surging 125% in one quarter before retreating more than 20% following the earnings announcement.
While I remain Bullish about the long-term potential of both the sector and Joby’s leadership within it, waiting for a reversal in the current negative price momentum may offer a more attractive entry point.