The U.S. economy lost 105,000 jobs in October and added 64,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high of 4.6% and the federal workforce shrinking to its smallest level since 2014. However, the odds of a rate cut at the January 28 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting haven’t budged and remain at 24.4% on CME’s FedWatch tool.
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“We do not think this was weak enough to spur another near-term rate cut,” said Evercore ISI Head of Global Policy Krishna Guha. “The data will have to come in appreciably worse than expected to deliver another cut.”
Jobs Data May Not Reflect True Market Health
While the data further adds to evidence of a weakening job market, the numbers may be flawed due to data collection disruptions arising from the government shutdown.
“The November 2025 estimates are associated with slightly higher than usual standard errors,” said the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
In addition, many federal workers who accepted deferred resignation offers from the Trump administration earlier this year exited payrolls in October, potentially skewing the unemployment rate. It’s likely that these workers are actively looking for new positions.
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