Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com is scheduled to announce its first-quarter results on Tuesday, May 13. Despite the U.S.-China trade tensions, Wall Street analysts have been bullish on JD stock. Analysts expect JD.com to report EPS (earnings per share) of $0.97, reflecting a 24.4% growth from the prior-year quarter. They project an 11% year-over-year growth in Q1 2025 revenue to $40.07 billion. Investors will look forward to management’s commentary on tariffs, JD.com’s aggressive growth in food delivery, and AI (artificial intelligence)-related tailwinds.
JD.com delivered impressive results for Q4 2024. In fact, the company reported its strongest revenue growth in 11 quarters, with deep discounts and government subsidies driving customers to spend on categories like electronics and home appliances. According to Main Street Data, revenue from JD.com’s Electronics and Home Appliances segment grew by 15.8% in Q4 2024 to $24 billion.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of JD.com’s Q1 Earnings
Heading into Q1 results, Citi analyst Alicia Yap lowered the price target for JD.com stock to $51 from $56 while maintaining a Buy rating. The analyst thinks that given that the order volume doubled from 5 million to 10 million in 10 days, it is evident that JD is serious about the food delivery business. However, the analyst noted that JD stock is declining as investors are concerned about the profitability impact of the low-margin delivery business.
Yap added that it looks like JD might have planned to fight back the threat to its core retail business from Meituan Insta-shopping with the hiring of Mr. Qing Guo back in early 2024. While there is uncertainty on the sustainability of volume momentum once the government subsidy is scaled back and normalization of merchants’ commission fee waiver occurs, the analyst contends that in this scenario the food delivery/on-demand retail is a natural expansion for JD due to higher transaction frequency, cross-selling opportunity, and an effective new user acquisition channel.
Likewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Eddy Wang noted that the company’s recent aggressive investment in its food delivery business, marked by substantial subsidies, has fueled rapid growth in order volume. While the short-term revenue boosts due to a trade-in program has benefited JD.com, Wang argues that the higher expenses on food delivery may offset these gains. Wang has a Hold rating on JD stock with a price target of $41.
Options Traders Anticipate a Major Move on JD.com’s Q1 Earnings
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting about an 8.5% move in either direction in JD stock in reaction to Q1 results.
Is JD Stock a Buy or Sell?
Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on JD.com stock based on 10 Buys and three Holds. The average JD stock price target of $50.54 implies 49.3% upside potential. JD stock is down 2.3% year-to-date.
