Nio Inc. (NIO) has had a volatile year, with year-to-date gains of just 2%. However, the stock has surged roughly 28% since July, fueled by excitement around its new mass-market BEV models under the ONVO brand, particularly the recently launched L90 SUV. As a result, J.P. Morgan analyst Nick Lai raised the price target on the stock to $4.80 from $3.06 per share.
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However, the analyst maintained a Neutral rating on the stock given Nio’s volatile track record and the competitive EV landscape.
L90 Pricing Surprise Drives Post-July Surge
The analyst highlighted that the L90’s launch pricing came as a surprise to the market. The large 6–7 seater BEV SUV starts at about RMB 280,000, or RMB 190,000 with the battery-as-a-service (BAAS) option.
This price point puts the L90 in direct competition with more affordable six-seater SUVs such as Li Auto’s (LI) L6, XPeng’s G9, and Xiaomi’s SU7, potentially widening its appeal to cost-conscious buyers.
Notably, there are few rivals in China’s large 6–7 seat BEV SUV segment priced below RMB 300,000, giving the L90 a competitive edge.
New Upcoming Models Could Extend Momentum
According to Lai, Nio plans to launch a mid-size 5-seater BEV SUV, the L80, in either 4Q25 or early 2026, depending on the L90’s order momentum. If demand for the L90 slows, the L80’s launch may be delayed.
In addition, selected Nio models, including the recently launched ES8 large SUV, are due for a refresh, with the ES9 SUV expected in 1Q26.
According to the analyst, these new and updated models could act as key drivers for sustaining sales growth.
J.P. Morgan Offers Improved Earnings Outlook
J.P. Morgan has raised Nio’s 2025 and 2026 volume forecasts by 3% and 13%, respectively, reflecting optimism about new product launches and refreshed models.
Lai expects higher sales to help improve margins and cut losses in Q4 2025 to about RMB 713 million (non-GAAP). However, this is still short of the company’s target to break even.
Will the Rebound Last?
Lai said that while the recent rally has been strong, investors should watch the L90’s sales closely. Future gains could depend on the L80’s launch and steady demand for Nio’s updated models.
Is Nio a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Overall, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on NIO stock, based on three Buys, seven Holds, and one Sell assigned in the last three months. The average NIO stock price target of $4.62 implies 3.82% upside potential from current levels.
