UnitedHealth (UNH) is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results before the market opens on January 27. Analysts expect the health insurance giant to post a significant drop in earnings due to rising medical costs in its Medicare Advantage (MA) business, with revenues showing modest growth.
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Investors will focus more on UNH’s 2026 guidance than on FY2025 performance, when UNH faced allegations of accounting irregularities and margin pressure.
UNH Faces Multiple Headwinds
UNH stock has lost more than 34% over the past year due to multiple company-specific and sectoral headwinds. The insurer faces a Justice Department probe into alleged MA billing malpractices. Plus, a recent Senate investigation found that UNH is using “aggressive” tactics to boost Medicare payments. Moreover, President Trump’s proposed “Great Healthcare Plan” could further pressure insurers like UNH by redirecting subsidies directly to consumers, potentially shrinking their revenue from ACA marketplace plans.
Expectations from UnitedHealth
The Street expects UNH to post a 69% year-over-year decline in earnings per share (EPS) to $2.12. Sales are forecast to reach $113.8 billion, up 13% compared to Q4FY24. It is worth noting that UnitedHealth has missed earnings in two of the past eight quarters.
According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about a 6.31% move in either direction in UNH stock in reaction to Q4FY25 results. Notably, this implied move is lower than UNH stock’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of 8.84% over the past four quarters.
Analysts View Ahead of Results
Ahead of the results, five analysts reiterated their “Buy” ratings, suggesting that most remain optimistic about UNH’s long-term potential. Bernstein analyst Lance Wilkes named UnitedHealth his Top Pick for 2026, citing gradual recovery in both MA and Medicaid segments amid improving pricing and utilization trends. He has a Street-high price target of $444, implying 27.7% upside potential.
Moreover, Mizuho Securities analyst Ann Hynes anticipates the Medicare Advantage 2027 Advance Notice to boost managed care stocks like UNH, Humana (HUM), and Elevance (ELV). She expects a 9%-10% rate increase, above the Street’s 5% forecast, which would enhance margins and investor confidence in the sector’s recovery. This catalyst could drive gains for high-exposure firms like UNH amid Trump’s healthcare shifts, similar to the 2026 announcement, Hynes concluded.
Is UNH Going to Recover?
Despite UNH’s ongoing challenges, analysts remain optimistic and see further upside to the stock in 2026. On TipRanks, UNH stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 16 Buys and three Hold ratings. The average UnitedHealth price target of $399.61 implies 12.7% upside potential from current levels.
