Bitcoin sank under $100,000 this week and traders are confronting a growing risk that the bull cycle is losing momentum. The retreat comes during a broader sentiment shift driven by hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and persistent selling from larger holders. Technical analysts now argue that a classic Wyckoff Distribution setup is taking shape in real time.
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BTC traded near $95,800 on Friday after failing to reclaim the six-figure level. The slide has revived bearish models that were brushed aside earlier this year during Bitcoin’s rally above $122,000.
Wyckoff Pattern Signals a Deeper Drop
Analysts tracking the Wyckoff Distribution model say Bitcoin’s recent exhaustion pattern resembles a textbook top. The structure includes a Buying Climax at $122,000, an Automatic Reaction, and repeated Secondary Tests that never produced meaningful higher highs.
A final push toward $126,200 in early October acted like an Upthrust After Distribution, the pattern’s well-known false breakout that typically marks the end of demand. After that move failed, BTC moved through a sequence of Last Points of Supply and lost support near $110,000, signaling Phase D of the pattern.
Phase E arrived after Bitcoin slipped below the key $102,000 to $104,000 zone. That area has historically served as the midpoint of many distribution structures. The drop under that band unlocked a slide toward the mid-$90,000s and validated the markdown stage.
Measured-move assumptions based on the $122,000 to $104,000 range produce an $18,000 downside target. The model places the next key test near $86,000.
Macro Pressure Fuels Bearish Momentum
Risk appetite across global markets continued to fade through the week. Traders reassessed the probability of a December rate cut after the Federal Reserve signaled it may leave policy unchanged. The recent government shutdown disrupted economic data releases, which will likely slow the central bank’s decision-making process.
The uncertain backdrop weighed on U.S. equities and filtered through to crypto markets. Bitcoin absorbed heavy selling pressure from whales during the move below $100,000, according to multiple on-chain trackers.
Optimists Defend the $94,000 Price Level
Some analysts still believe the bull market is intact. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed to the $94,000 realized price for six- to twelve-month holders. He said the broader trend holds as long as Bitcoin trades above that level.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley echoed that view. He suggested Bitcoin may have already spent six months in a quiet bear phase and is nearing the end of it. He argued that long-term fundamentals remain strong despite the technical damage.
For traders, the next major test is whether Bitcoin can hold the $94,000 level. A breakdown below that line would confirm a deeper bearish shift, while a hold above it keeps the door open for a recovery toward six figures.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $96,087.
