McDonald’s stock (MCD) has held steady while the broader market’s gotten grilled by tariffs and recession fears. But with earnings dropping Thursday morning, analysts are no longer biting without a second thought. Growth is slowing, value menus are back, and Wall Street’s view is splitting.
Analysts Expect a Slight Dip in MCD Earnings
Consensus estimates put Q1 earnings at $2.66 per share, down about 1.4% from last year, with revenue expected to dip to $6.1 billion. It’s not a collapse, but it’s also not the kind of momentum McDonald’s has been known for.
Still, shares are up 10% year-to-date, trading near their record high of $321.29, set in early March. That kind of performance usually signals safety. But in this economy? It’s a balancing act.
Tariffs and inflation Are Eating into McDonald’s Confidence
President Trump’s latest tariff threats have rattled the market — but McDonald’s has been a rare winner. Investors have treated it like a recession-proof fallback. The catch? If the economy really cracks, even fast food isn’t immune. And if prices climb too far, consumers might just eat at home.
That’s already played out once: in 2024, fast-food traffic dipped when prices outpaced value. Chains like Chipotle and Chili’s actually gained share by leaning into experience, even at higher costs.
McDonald’s Value Menus Make a Comeback
To stop the bleeding, McDonald’s launched its new McValue platform — including a $5 Meal Deal and “buy one, add one for $1” offers. It worked last quarter: same-store sales finally reversed their slide.
But can that momentum last? BTIG and Robert W. Baird don’t think so — both firms reiterated Neutral ratings this month, warning that value-seeking customers may not convert back to full-price any time soon.
Still, Wedbush’s Nick Setyan is optimistic. He kept his Outperform and raised his target to $330, saying, “There’s a high probability McDonald’s resumes growth above historical rates in the second half.”
That’s the $6 billion question heading into Thursday’s print. Is McDonald’s coasting on nostalgia — or still worth its premium in 2025?
Is McDonald’s Stock a Good Buy?
According to TipRanks, 25 analysts currently cover McDonald’s, with 15 rating it a Buy and 10 at Hold — giving it a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. The average 12-month MCD price target sits at $326.62, implying just 2.2% upside from Wednesday’s close at $319.65. Targets range from $290 on the low end to $353 at the high.
That tight spread shows just how evenly split sentiment is. McDonald’s is still seen as a solid long-term play — but not everyone thinks there’s much room left to run near-term.
