Signs of a recession have increased as Americans brace for the U.S. to enter a period of economic turmoil. Several signals point toward a recession sometime this year, with some warning it could arrive in the second half of 2025.
Then there’s former Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren. He told Bloomberg that Americans should expect a recession this summer. Rosengren argued the recession could occur if President Donald Trump doesn’t ease up on tariffs.
Rosengren also discussed what he expects the Federal Reserve to do under the current trade situation. He believes the central bank will keep a slow pace until it’s clear what the “inflation and employment shocks are.”
Tariffs & Interest Rates Are in the Spotlight
Tariffs, and the impact they have on the U.S. economy, are a major interest of the Federal Reserve as it weighs interest rate cuts in 2025. The central bank has yet to cut rates this year as sticky inflation has stayed its hand. This has drawn criticism from President Trump, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unfazed.
This has all eyes on the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), set for May 6 and May 7. That’s when the next update on interest rates will be revealed. It should be noted that the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index report showed inflation running hotter than expected. This could push the Fed to keep interest rates at current levels, despite pressure from the President to lower them.
What’s Next on the Economic Calendar?
There are several events worth watching before the next FOMC meeting. Included in these are the unemployment data from the Challenger report tomorrow and payroll data on Friday. Investors can keep up with all the latest economic news with the TipRanks Economic Calendar and Economic Indicators Dashboard.
