Intel (INTC) shares jumped Wednesday as an upbeat outlook from Texas Instruments (TXN) helped reignite the broader semiconductor rally, reinforcing the idea that the AI-led demand wave is still very much alive.
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Texas Instruments didn’t have a perfect quarter on paper, falling short of Wall Street’s fourth-quarter earnings and revenue expectations. Yet, the market fixated on what mattered more for sentiment – the company’s outlook. Texas Instruments guided for first-quarter earnings per share of $1.22 to $1.48 on revenue of $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion, with the midpoint of about $1.35 in EPS and about $4.5 billion in revenue coming in above analysts’ forecasts. Investors took that as a sign that end-demand across key chip markets is holding up better than feared.
The bullish tone wasn’t just about Texas Instruments, either. Overseas, chip-equipment leader ASML reported bookings that blew past expectations, with orders coming in nearly double what analysts had forecast. Furthermore, memory heavyweight SK Hynix added fuel by talking up AI-driven demand dynamics and signaling plans to step up investment, which markets often treat as a “the cycle is real” vote of confidence.
That broader “all-clear” should have been exactly what Intel needed. The stock had already been under pressure after sinking late last week on disappointing guidance, and a sector-wide vote of confidence looked like the perfect catalyst to steady sentiment.
But Intel’s story proved harder to fix with macro tailwinds alone.
Despite delivering both top- and bottom-line beats in its Q4 2025 earnings report, weak guidance for the coming quarter sent the stock sliding. Revenue of $13.7 billion topped expectations by $282 million, while adjusted EPS of $0.15 came in nearly double Wall Street’s $0.07 forecast.
Yet, the company also warned that Q1 revenues would fall to between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, implying a year-over-year decline of about 4.7%. Profitability is expected to suffer as well, with Intel forecasting breakeven adjusted EPS versus $0.13 a year ago.
Management pointed to external supply constraints as the main culprit. CFO David Zinsner said the bottleneck should ease by Q2, but that reassurance did little to calm markets in the moment.
Still, Benchmark analyst Cody Acree argues that the selloff looks more like digestion than derailment.
“While we are disappointed by the company’s first quarter supply limitations and its forecast, we believe it should represent the fundamental low point for Intel this year,” says the 5-star analyst, who ranks among the top 1% on Wall Street.
Acree notes that Intel’s massive run-up before earnings – more than 150% over the past 12 months and about 50% in 2026 alone – made a pullback almost inevitable once guidance disappointed.
Even so, the analyst sees the Q4 results as evidence of real operational progress. Acree points to the successful delivery of Intel’s 18A process technology and the early launch of its Core Ultra Series 3 as signs the turnaround effort is moving forward.
the analyst also concedes that the near-term setbacks, including supply constraints, underscore that the recovery will not be a straight line.
Looking further ahead, Acree is encouraged by Intel’s foundry ambitions. The analyst believes the company is positioning itself to win new customers in the second half of 2026, which could reshape its role in the industry.
“Intel will have its clearest opportunity in a decade to reestablish itself within the global semiconductor landscape, not only as a solid supplier of advanced computing solutions but a viable alternative source of foundry capacity to a still supply constrained market,” Acree summed up.
On that basis, the analyst rates INTC shares a Buy rating and raises his price target from $50 to $57, implying upside of more than 26%. (To watch Acree’s track record, click here)
Most of Acree’s peers aren’t quite ready to give INTC the benefit of the doubt just yet. With 7 Buys, 20 Holds, and 4 Sells, INTC carries a consensus Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating. Its 12-month average price target of $48.22 suggests the shares will stay rangebound for the time being. (See INTC stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.