India has officially taken the lead from China as the biggest smartphone supplier to the U.S., according to new Q2 2025 data from Canalys. It’s a big shift in global tech manufacturing, and it’s happening as companies rethink their supply chains to handle tariff pressure and geopolitical noise.
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India accounted for 44% of smartphones shipped to the U.S. in the April-to-June quarter. That’s a jump from just 13% a year ago. China, on the other hand, saw its share tumble from 61% to 25%. Vietnam came in second at 30%, thanks in large part to stronger output from Samsung Electronics (GB:SMSN).
Apple’s China Plus One Approach
Much of India’s rise has to do with Apple (AAPL), which has been leaning harder into its “China Plus One” approach. The company boosted its assembly output in India, using the region to cover most of its U.S. shipments this year. Production there climbed 53% in the first half of 2025, hitting 23.9 million iPhones. Apple now builds all its models in India, including the high-end Pro lineup.
Still, iPhone shipments to the U.S. were down 11% in the second quarter. Apple had already stocked up earlier in the year, which helped cushion its numbers. That early inventory build also hints at how companies are preparing for possible policy shifts.
Overall, the U.S. smartphone market didn’t move much. Total shipments rose just 1% to 27.1 million units. Apple kept its top spot with 49% of the market. Samsung closed in with a 31% share, lifted by steady demand for its Galaxy A-series phones.
The Balance Is Shifting
The big takeaway? Smartphone makers are spreading out their bets. India and Vietnam are now playing a bigger role in where and how phones get made. With new factories, supply hubs, and labor capacity ramping up, the balance of global production is shifting fast.
The drop in China’s share looks sharp, but it lines up with longer-term moves to diversify production. And with U.S. demand staying flat, most of the shipping activity looks like supply planning, not a sign of surging sales.
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On the Street, Apple boasts a Moderate Buy consensus rating, with an average AAPL stock price target of $229.11. This implies a 7.04% upside.
