The price of cocoa, the active ingredient in chocolate, is again marching higher amid renewed concerns about global supplies.
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After peaking at more than $10,000 per tonne last year, cocoa’s price had fallen by half earlier in 2025. However, the price is now at $8,700 a tonne as commodities traders evaluate the likely supply of cocoa coming out of Ivory Coast in Africa, the world’s main hub.
Government data shows that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.69 million tonnes of cocoa to ports this crop year, which runs from October 1 to June 29, up 6.8% from last year but down from a 35% year-over-year increase seen in December. There are media reports that heavy rain in the Ivory Coast is keeping cocoa growers off their farms and disrupting the current harvest.
Chocolate Stocks
The current situation is hurting the stocks of chocolate makers such as Hershey Co. (HSY), Mondelēz International (MDLZ), and Tootsie Roll Industries (TR). In Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, the Cocoa Board just cut its production forecast for this year to 600,000 tonnes from a previous estimate of 617,500 tonnes.
Compounding matters are worries that trade tariffs will exacerbate already high cocoa prices, constraining demand from both producers and consumers. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently revised its global cocoa deficit to 494,000 tonnes, the biggest deficit in 60 years. HSY stock has fallen 4% over the last 12 months.
Is HSY Stock a Buy?
The stock of Hershey Co. has a consensus Hold rating among 14 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on 12 Hold and two Sell recommendations issued in the last three months. The average HSY price target of $160.85 implies 8.92% downside from current levels.
