How a Crypto Pivot Could Transform Trump Media’s (DJT) Stock Valuation

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT)—best known for its Truth Social platform—appears to be steering its identity in a new direction. While it’s nominally a social media company, the real narrative has shifted toward Bitcoin (BTC-USD), Cronos (CRO-USD), and other crypto-related investments. Cronos has faced challenges this year, but, like many digital assets aspiring to follow Bitcoin’s trajectory, optimism persists that its next upswing will stick.

Its unspoken crypto pivot feels improvised and loosely connected to a platform that already struggles to generate meaningful revenue. But after this year’s steep sell-off, the stock is drifting toward a valuation close to, or even below, its book value. That doesn’t make Trump Media a strong investment overnight—but it does make the stock a better value proposition, all things considered, as well as opening the door to an intriguing speculative play backed by a bundle of bullish crypto assets, and a bullish U.S. President.

For the time being, I remain Neutral on the stock because at heart I see a struggling social network stapled to a volatile digital-asset treasury. In other words, I need to see more substance before committing this stock to my portfolio. However, for hearty investors seeking soft exposure to cryptocurrencies with the added pro-Trump political wager that DJT necessarily carries, this stock may just be their ticket.

A Crypto Strategy That Looks Made Up on the Fly

Over the past year, Trump Media has leaned hard into crypto and, in my view, blurred its identity in the process. Last year, it outlined a multi-billion-dollar Bitcoin treasury plan, and by Q3, it reported holding 11,542 BTC (worth roughly $1.3 billion at September end) after only starting to buy in late July. Although I am not opposed to a Bitcoin Treasury strategy, the lack of clear guidance on how the company plans to finance these ongoing purchases feels unprofessional and not particularly investor-friendly. Bitcoin is proving to be a compelling new asset for investors, but transparency is essential for them to see anything.

The lack of direction becomes even clearer when you consider DJT’s recent partnership with Crypto.com and SPAC Yorkville Acquisition (MCGA) to create Trump Media Group CRO Strategy, a listed digital-asset treasury company focused on accumulating Cronos (CRO) cryptocurrency. The funding package envisions $1 billion of CRO, $200 million in cash, $220 million in warrants, and a $5 billion equity line from a Yorkville affiliate, pitched as the “largest digital-asset treasury relative to market cap” ever.

Judging by the recent share price action, the market is disappointed by this deal. A Bitcoin Treasury strategy seems risky enough, and yet, there are many reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin over the long term. I don’t think the same can be said for CRO, which lacks the pristine qualities that assign Bitcoin its “digital gold” status. Its value is heavily tied to a single corporate ecosystem, making it far more vulnerable to execution risk, centralized decisions, and platform-specific volatility.

Truth Social Remains an Embryonic Platform

Strip away the Bitcoin and other speculative crypto holdings and you’re left with DJT’s core business: Truth Social. On most conventional metrics, it is not an exciting platform. Independent estimates suggest it averaged ~6 million monthly active users (MAUs) last year, with downloads now running below 8,000 per day. Needless to say, these are tiny numbers in a world where TikTok, Facebook (META), and Instagram measure users in the billions.

The financials are even more sour. Last year, Trump Media reported just $3.6 million of revenue, down 12% year-on-year, with a net loss of $400 million. Notably, 90% of that revenue came from a single “undisclosed advertising partner.”

According to existing U.S. financial regulations, since DJT is listed on the Nasdaq, it is subject to SEC and exchange disclosure rules. However, SEC rules do not require public companies to disclose the name of a major customer, only that any customer accounts for more than 10% of revenue and whether the company has a critical dependence on that customer for its operations.

That opacity has fueled speculation in financial circles that the mystery client may be Donald Trump himself, quietly propping up the company in its early stages. If true, it would offer an explanation for the secrecy: publicly reporting under $1 million in genuine third-party revenue would hardly inspire confidence.

And speaking of confidence, for readers keen to stay up to date on Trump’s latest comments and their impact on market confidence, TipRanks’ Trump Dashboard is a helpful tool. According to a light-hearted mix of factors, the U.S. President has been adjudged to be “Grumpy” of late.

Q3 Truth Social Update

Looking at the most recent quarterly figures, DJT’s outlook has improved since its listing. Net sales were about $973,000, while the company lost $54.8 million in the quarter, more than double the $19.2 million loss in the same period a year earlier, driven in part by over $20 million of legal expenses.

Considering the platform has been operating for several years yet generates anemic revenues, I don’t see how the firm can attract mainstream advertisers, let alone major corporate partners, especially given the political baggage surrounding it. The lack of sustained revenue growth prospects, along with the heavy fixed costs and an intensely polarizing brand, leaves little to be optimistic about from an operating business standpoint.

When Meme Valuations Drift Toward Book Value

With all that being said, there is a bullish investment case for DJT. The company ended last quarter with total assets of about $3.27 billion and total liabilities of roughly $987 million, leaving shareholders’ equity of around $2.28 billion. With roughly 280 million shares outstanding, that works out to book value per share of a little over $8.14. Of course, book value swings every day, and with Bitcoin having taken a beating lately, you can bet that this figure is now lower.

Nevertheless, DJT has dropped nearly 70% this year, now trading around $10–11 per share, well below the 20x-30x multiple on book value it traded last year, and equally absurd price to sales multiples due to the lack of noteworthy revenue. If the market keeps dumping the stock, DJT could trade below book value, especially if Bitcoin rebounds from here. If that were to happen, DJT might emerge as a speculative crypto vehicle to go long on Bitcoin, which in turn could revive the bullish momentum.

Is Trump Media a Good Stock to Buy Now?

Currently, TipRanks is not tracking any analysts covering Trump Media. However, TipRanks does track hedge fund activity on the stock. For all its headline-grabbing chaos, the smart money appears to see something in DJT.

According to TipRanks’ hedge fund tracker, DJT is currently viewed favorably by Wall Street hedge fund managers. According to 13F filings from 487 hedge funds submitted to the SEC over the past quarter, hedge fund managers have increased their stakes from almost zero in March this year to 388.8K shares today. The current confidence signal based on three leading hedge funds is Very Positive.

Struggling Social Network Transforms Into Crypto Proxy

Trump Media’s rapid pivot into crypto has turned DJT into an unusual hybrid—part underperforming social platform, part oversized digital-asset holder. At its core, the company remains a loss-making niche network with limited user engagement and modest ad revenue. Yet layered on top of that is a growing, multibillion-dollar cache of Bitcoin and other tokens, giving the balance sheet far more substance than the underlying business.

Strategically, the story is muddled. The operating model and the crypto ambitions feel only loosely connected, and the long-term plan is anything but clear. Still, as the company accumulates more digital assets, the financial profile becomes harder to ignore. If DJT’s stock drops below its book value, the market may start treating it less like a media company and more like a speculative crypto-treasury vehicle—one with potentially sharp upside, but certainly not suited for the faint-hearted.