Wolfe Research added semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA) to its “Alpha List.” The firm’s top analyst Chris Caso highlighted that NVDA stock has risen “only 36%” over the past year, lagging several artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks. The top analyst explained the reasons for the underperformance and stated that he finds NVDA stock attractive at the current valuation levels.
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Wolfe Analyst Is Bullish on NVDA Stock
Caso listed three reasons for Nvidia stock’s underperformance compared to other AI stocks like Micron Technology (MU):
- The delayed launch of the Blackwell platform
- Worries in the broader market about the sustainability of AI spending
- Concerns about market share loss amid rising competition from custom AI chips
Caso contends that NVDA stock remains compelling, given that it is trading at just 23x his 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate, well below the 5-year average of about 35x. The analyst’s bullish stance is backed by the ramp-up in Nvidia’s Blackwell AI platform. Additionally, Caso highlighted the attractive specs of the Rubin platform, noting that its AI inference is 5x better than Blackwell’s. Notably, Rubin is on track to ramp up in the second half of 2026.
The top-rated analyst expects an upside of at least $40 billion to the calendar year 2026 revenue consensus for Nvidia, considering the company’s recent guidance. Recently, Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said that the $500 billion revenue number from Blackwell and Rubin, announced in October 2025, “has definitely gotten larger.” The analyst also sees upside to estimates based on the recent comments on the pricing of Blackwell Ultra and Rubin. Furthermore, Caso sees the possibility of H200 shipments to China offering additional upside to estimates.
Interestingly, Caso sees only Alphabet-owned Google’s (GOOGL) tensor processing units as a major competition for NVDA, given that other custom AI chips are not ramping as rapidly. That said, the analyst highlighted that the deployment of TPUs in Google’s data centers for third-party customers could still be limited in scope.
Is NVDA Stock a Good Buy?
Overall, Nvidia scores Wall Street’s Strong Buy consensus rating based on 39 Buys, one Hold, and one Sell recommendation. The average NVDA stock price target of $264.97 indicates 43% upside potential from current levels.
