Alphabet (GOOGL) stock has rallied 13% over the past month and is up 69% year-to-date, driven by expectations of solid artificial intelligence (AI)-led growth in the Google Cloud unit, the release of the Gemini 3 AI model, and reports that Meta Platforms (META) is in talks to use Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) in its data centers. Despite these positives, top Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Deepak Mathivanan reaffirmed a Hold rating on GOOGL stock. Let’s look at the reasons for his cautious stance.
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Cantor Analyst Retains a Neutral Stance on GOOGL Stock
Mathivanan expects Google to begin realizing the benefits of Gemini 3 in Search, AI Mode, and Cloud in Fiscal 2026 as this latest model is deployed broadly across these offerings. Regarding Gemini 3’s moat, the analyst noted that Google hasn’t shared much about this model’s architecture. Broadly, Mathivanan noted that Gemini 3’s improvements seem driven by the company’s ability to scale pre-training, train on large tensor processing unit (TPU) compute, improve compute efficiency through AlphaEvolve, and tap into training data from its Google services.
While some of these positives are “structural advantages,” Mathivanan contends that other AI labs could advance with training runs on larger infrastructure and perhaps narrow the gap with Gemini 3 over the next 6–12 months.
The analyst added that historically, state-of-the-art models have held the top spot for an average of about 60 days. While the 2026 outlook looks good for GOOGL stock, Mathivanan thinks that “shares could see some digestion near term,” given the recent rally.
Is GOOGL Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Currently, Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on Alphabet stock based on 30 Buys and seven Holds. The average GOOGL stock price target of $316.03 indicates a downside risk of 1.1% from current levels.
