Crypto traders hoping for fireworks from the new XRP ETF (XRPR) just got a reality check. The fund, launched Sept. 18 by REX-Osprey, recorded $37.7 million in opening volume, respectable, but nowhere near the breakout pump some investors were betting on.
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“Strong ETF flows didn’t stop sharp sell-offs in Bitcoin and Ethereum after their approvals,” said Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal. “XRP investors expecting an immediate pump could be disappointed.”
Instead of liftoff, XRP (XRP-USD) followed the script from other ETFs: an initial pop, then profit-taking. That hasn’t killed longer-term optimism, but it’s a warning shot for traders chasing fast gains.
Bitcoin Bulls Eye $173K by December
While XRP cooled, Bitcoin’s long game grabbed attention. Economist Timothy Peterson says history suggests BTC could finish 2025 at around $173,000. His model shows that from Sept. 21 onward, Bitcoin ends the year higher 70% of the time, with a median gain of 50%.
At Sunday’s intraday high of $115,879, a 50% rally would land Bitcoin just shy of Peterson’s target. VanEck’s Matthew Sigel is in the same ballpark with a $180,000 call, while ultra-bulls like Arthur Hayes are still gunning for $250,000.
The thing is, cycles matter. Benjamin Cowen of Into The Cryptoverse warns that BTC’s eventual bear market could carve out a 66%–74% drawdown from the all-time high, no matter where it peaks.
Ethereum Struggles but Keeps $5K in Play
Ethereum (ETH) has lagged, down 12% over 30 days, but bulls aren’t giving up. Tesseract CEO James Harris points to resistance at $4,650–$4,700, saying a clean break could clear the path to $5,000 and beyond.
He pegs a year-end target of $6,500, citing liquidity from rate cuts. Still, volatility remains a risk, ETH has already tripled off its lows, and profit-taking could bite before another leg higher.
Solana Could Rip into October
Solana (SOL-USD) is lining up for its own breakout. With the token trading around $220, Derive’s Sean Dawson says there’s a 30% chance SOL hits $300 by the end of October, which would top its old all-time high of $294. Adoption by corporate treasuries is fueling the momentum, including billion-dollar allocations into Solana reserves.
Market Sentiment Splits Between Greed and Fear
Despite bullish year-end calls, not everyone’s piling in. Santiment data warns retail may be getting ahead of itself, with wallet activity signaling mild risk in Bitcoin. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped back to “Fear” this week at 45, while the Altcoin Season Index clocked a high-risk 65, flashing “risk-on.”
Options traders, meanwhile, are positioning for upside. Derive data shows heavy call activity between $145K–$170K for Bitcoin by year-end, while prediction markets now give BTC a 61% chance of hitting new all-time highs by Dec. 31.
XRP’s ETF debut fizzled instead of igniting. But the bigger crypto story is still Bitcoin, with history, options flows and prediction markets all pointing to a strong finish near $173K. Ethereum and Solana may tag along, though volatility will be fierce.
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