Electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla (TSLA) reported a 13.5% year-over-year decline in Q2 deliveries to 384,122 units, marking the second consecutive quarter of lower deliveries amid intense competition, macro uncertainties, and backlash over Elon Musk’s political activities. Nonetheless, TSLA stock rose about 5% on Wednesday, with some analysts calling the Q2 deliveries report “better-than-feared.”
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Top Analysts Weigh in on Tesla’s Q2 Deliveries
Following Tesla’s Q2 deliveries report, William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer reiterated a Buy rating on TSLA stock. The 5-star analyst noted that Tesla’s Q2 deliveries exceeded his estimates (which he had lowered considerably on Monday) by 8%. Dorsheimer stated that these delivery numbers will be seen as a win, providing some reassurance that demand growth is “simply slowing, rather than spiraling.” He contends that investors are more focused on the robotaxi rollout and expects momentum in the shares to follow that closely.
While Dorsheimer expects continued volatility in the stock, he believes that the Elon Musk-led company has long-term fundamental advantages due to the vertical integration of AI (artificial intelligence) and hardware. “We encourage investors to be tactical on pullbacks as Tesla executes its transition from low-margin automaker to high-margin AI and autonomous driving tech,” concluded Dorsheimer.
Similarly, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives called Tesla’s Q2 deliveries better than feared and reiterated a Buy rating with a price forecast of $500. The 4-star analyst noted that the company benefited from its Model Y refresh cycle in Q2 2025. Ives highlighted that while Tesla’s business in China experienced significant weakness in the previous quarters due to intense competition, the company saw a rebound in June sales. He added that Tesla’s sales in China grew for the first time in eight months, reflecting higher demand for its updated Model Y as deliveries in the region are gradually improving. China represents “the heart and lungs” of Tesla’s growth story, the analyst stated. Ives expects deliveries to ramp in the second half of 2025, given the Model Y refresh cycle.
Meanwhile, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch reiterated a Hold rating on Tesla stock, noting that the Model 3/Y surpassed expectations. The 5-star analyst believes that investors will quickly shift their focus to the progress on FSD (full self-driving) performance and Tesla’s ability to maintain both margin and free cash flow. Notably, Rusch expects higher Model 3/Y sell-through to support margins and offset lackluster Model S/X/Cybertruck sales. He thinks that Tesla bulls will highlight improving China sales as a sign of progress on global demand, while bears will emphasize the relative market share losses, questioning the company’s technology leadership. Rusch expects TSLA stock to hold gains into the second-quarter results, scheduled to be announced later this month.
Is Tesla Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Overall, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Tesla stock based on 13 Buys, 12 Holds, and nine Sells. The average TSLA stock price target of $287.39 indicates a downside risk of about 9% from current levels. Tesla stock has declined about 22% year-to-date.
