The gold price smashed a new record today, bursting through the $4,400 an ounce level for the first time.
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Gold futures rose 1.3% to $4,442.70 an ounce in early trading, while the spot gold price climbed 1.6% to $4,410.
Gold Gets Fed Push
The latest gold push came from growing expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in January. Lower interest rates tend to be bullish for the gold price.
Rising geopolitical fears given the failure to reach a peace agreement in Ukraine, increasing tensions between Europe and Russia and the potential of U.S. military action in Venezuela also enhanced gold’s safe haven status.
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said the gains were driven by “last week’s softer-than-expected US inflation and jobs reports, which reinforced expectations for two 25bp Fed rate cuts in 2026.”
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said gold had experienced a year to remember. “Gold is rounding off the strongest annual performance for the yellow metal in four decades and today’s price action suggests that it is not done yet,” she said. “Geopolitical concerns are heating up.”
The gold price has jumped 65% so far this year, see below, breaking multiple records and surpassing the $3,000 and $4,000 per-ounce thresholds for the first time. It is on track for its biggest annual gain since 1979.
It has also boosted gold-related ETFs such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which has surged over 60% this year.
Some major banks have forecasted that the gold price will continue to rally in 2026. Investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS) expects gold prices to rise 14% to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 under its base case. The bank added that there were upside risks to this forecast, citing the potential for broader diversification demand from private investors.
Bank of America (BAC) expects gold to trade at an average price of $4,538 per troy ounce in 2026 and sees a path to $5,000. The World Gold Council also sees the metal hitting that milestone driven by “elevated geopolitical stress and a pronounced flight-to-safety.”
However, some analysts cautioned that the recent rally could be vulnerable to profit-taking. “Given that gold has already risen 4% this month and we’re nearing the end of the year, bulls may want to tread with caution as volumes are to deplete and odds of profit-taking are also likely on the rise,” said Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX (SNEX).
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