Both JP Morgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) have offered new predictions about the price of gold. Although gold prices dropped on October 21, both banks expect a surge in 2026. JPM predicts prices reaching an average of $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. MS is also optimistic, revising its 2026 gold forecast upward to $4,400 per ounce.
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Both banks cited the expected interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve as catalysts. Historically, gold prices have risen an average of 6% in the 60 days after the start of a Fed rate-cutting cycle. That’s due to gold becoming a more attractive investment once the return on cash and bonds drops.
Additionally, as Morgan Stanley writes in a report, slowed growth in the U.S. economy benefits gold. That’s because sluggish growth leads the U.S. dollar to weaken, prompting investors to shift from dollar-based assets to gold.
Explaining her position, Morgan Stanley strategist Amy Gower said, “We see further upside in gold, driven by a falling U.S. dollar, strong ETF buying, continued central bank purchases and a backdrop of uncertainty supporting demand for this safe-haven asset.”
Similarly, JP Morgan analysts wrote in a note, “With gold being our highest conviction long all year, we still believe it has even higher to go as we enter into a Fed cutting cycle.”
Gold Prices this Year
Gold is one of the best-performing assets of 2025, having appreciated by more than 50% this year.
Interested in investing in gold? See TipRanks’ Compare Gold ETFs chart for real-time data so you can research gold ETFs before you invest.