Gold Surge Thrusts Barrick Mining Stock (B) Into the Limelight

Canada-based mining giant Barrick Mining (B) has recently attracted attention for its push into copper production. Despite this strategic expansion, the company remains predominantly a gold producer, with approximately 86% of Q3 2025 revenue derived from gold operations.

With gold prices remaining elevated—and several prominent analysts and research firms having raised their 2026 gold price forecasts in recent weeks—Barrick appears well-positioned to benefit from a supportive macro backdrop. Even after delivering a 225% gain over the past 12 months, the stock continues to trade at a reasonable forward P/E multiple of 22x.

I remain bullish on Barrick Mining, as I expect the favorable macro environment to drive earnings growth over the next year and support further upside in the share price.

Gold Prices Are Projected to Hit New Highs in 2026

My bullish outlook on Barrick Mining is driven largely by a highly favorable macroeconomic backdrop. Gold prices have surged to record levels, surpassing $5,000 per ounce for the first time on January 23 and continuing higher to roughly $5,275 by January 27. This rally has pushed the metal’s 12-month return close to 90%, and many analysts expect the momentum to extend into 2026.

On January 22, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold price target to $5,400 from $4,900, citing increased private-sector diversification as a key demand driver. Meanwhile, both Deutsche Bank and Société Générale forecast gold prices reaching $6,000 by year-end.

Several structural factors underpin expectations for a sustained gold bull market. Beyond private-sector buying, central banks worldwide have been aggressively accumulating gold to hedge against currency volatility. After purchasing a record 1,045 tons in 2024, central banks maintained strong buying momentum into late 2025, acquiring 297 tons through November.

Countries such as Poland, Brazil, and Turkey have been among the most active buyers in recent months. At the same time, hedge funds have ramped up gold exposure amid heightened trade and geopolitical tensions, further supporting demand. Gold prices have also been bolstered by strong demand in China, where investors increasingly favor gold as a hedge against instability in the property market.

Barrick Mining is Setting Itself Up to Benefit From Higher Gold Prices

My bullish view on Barrick Mining is further reinforced by the company’s disciplined investment in its gold assets to capitalize on the favorable macro environment. A key focus is the Fourmile gold project in Nevada.

Last year, Barrick released an updated preliminary economic assessment for Fourmile, targeting annual production of 600,000 to 750,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of approximately $700 per ounce. With gold prices currently well above $5,000, the Fourmile project has the potential to be a major value driver once it comes online.

Beyond Fourmile, Barrick is expanding the nameplate capacity of its Goldrush underground mine in Nevada to 500,000 ounces per year. The company is also investing in its Pueblo Viejo operations in the Dominican Republic, where annual production capacity is expected to increase to 800,000 ounces. These investments appear well-timed, as multiple high-quality projects are set to ramp up production during a period of historically elevated gold prices.

Higher Gold Prices Support Shareholder Distributions Growth

Beyond the favorable macro backdrop and Barrick Mining’s investments to expand production, I am increasingly encouraged by the company’s outlook for shareholder returns through both dividends and share repurchases. In Q3 2025, Barrick turned net cash positive, ending the quarter with a net cash position of $323 million.

This milestone activated the company’s performance dividend framework and resulted in a 5-cent increase to the quarterly dividend. With gold prices expected to remain above $5,000 this year, Barrick’s net cash position is likely to expand further in 2026, providing additional support for higher performance-based dividend payouts.

A growing net cash balance also underpins increased share repurchase activity. During Q3 2025, Barrick repurchased $589 million worth of stock — a significant step up from the $268 million deployed in the prior quarter.

In November, the company further strengthened its capital return strategy by increasing its share repurchase authorization by $500 million to a total of $1.5 billion. Should gold prices remain elevated, additional increases to the buyback program appear likely. In aggregate, Barrick returned $843 million to shareholders in Q3 2025—nearly double the amount distributed in Q2—highlighting a clear upward trajectory in shareholder distributions.

Barrick’s Decent Valuation Relative to Its Sector

Barrick Mining’s valuation appears reasonable despite the stock’s strong run, reflecting a balance between elevated expectations and improving fundamentals. The miner’s current stock price suggests a modest overvaluation relative to peers but not to an excessive degree. Barrick trades at a P/E of 28.5x, which is ~38% above the sector median and almost 50% higher than its own five-year average, indicating that the market is pricing in a more favorable earnings outlook.

On a forward basis, the valuation looks somewhat more palatable, with a forward P/E of 23.1x, still a 20% premium to the sector median but more reflective of expected earnings growth driven by higher gold prices and expanding production.

While the stock is not cheap on a historical or relative basis, the premium appears justified given the supportive macro environment for gold, Barrick’s improving balance sheet, and rising shareholder returns, positioning Barrick Mining as fairly valued rather than meaningfully overextended

Is Barrick Mining a Buy?

On Wall Street, Barrick Mining stock carries a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 12 Buy, one Hold, and zero Sell ratings over the past three months. Barrick’s average stock price target of $50.70 implies approximately 4% downside potential over the next twelve months.

See more Barrick Mining analyst ratings

Although analyst ratings suggest the company is fairly valued, at its current forward P/E multiple of ~23x, I believe Barrick Mining is still a decent investment for investors looking to gain exposure to increasing gold prices. The company’s growing exposure to copper acts as a hedge against an unforeseen weakness in gold prices this year. I believe these diversification efforts have increased the margin of safety of investing in Barrick Mining.

A Decent Setup for Sustained Upside

Barrick Mining has found itself in a perfect storm. Gold prices are likely to remain strong in 2026 amid geopolitical tensions, continued Central Bank buying, and private sector investments. The company is positioning itself to make the most of this favorable environment by expanding its production capacity. Barrick Mining’s diversification efforts into copper are impressive too. Even on the back of a stellar 12-month performance, I believe Barrick Mining stock offers more upside for long-term investors amid these developments.