Gold Price Crashes to $4,500 — JPMorgan Sees $6,300 Rally by Year-End

Gold prices have plunged to around $4,500 an ounce, shaking short-term sentiment across the market. On Monday, spot gold fell about 6% to $4,538 an ounce, after plunging nearly 10% on Friday when prices dropped below $5,000. But despite the pullback, JPMorgan (JPM) is sticking with a positive outlook, saying strong demand from central banks and investors could still drive gold to $6,300 by the end of the year.

Gold Extends Sharp Sell-Off

Gold continued its sell-off on Monday, as a stronger dollar and profit-taking have drained momentum from a rally that pushed precious metals to record highs just days earlier. Earlier, gold had hit a record high of around $5,100 an ounce on January 26, 2026, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid growing global uncertainty.

Analysts say the pullback came after Friday’s sudden reversal, as hopes for U.S. rate cuts clashed with concerns over new Fed leadership.

JPMorgan’s Bullish Take on Gold

In a recent note, JPMorgan’s team, led by analyst Gregory Shearer, said the broader environment still favors gold, with longer-term momentum expected to stay strong. The bank remains bullish on gold over the medium term, citing a continuing trend of investors diversifying into real assets.

A major reason for the bank’s higher forecast is stronger-than-expected central bank buying. In the fourth quarter, central banks purchased about 230 tonnes of gold, bringing total 2025 buying to roughly 863 tonnes, even as prices rose above $4,000 an ounce. For 2026, JPMorgan expects around 800 tonnes of central bank demand, reflecting ongoing reserve diversification that the bank believes still has room to grow.

Shearer added, “Gold remains a dynamic, multi-faceted portfolio hedge and investor demand has continued to come in stronger than our previous expectations.”

Year-to-date, the gold price is up by over 13%.