Goldman Sachs believes that gold (XAUUSD) prices could near $5,000 per troy ounce by mid-2026 if the Fed’s independence faces continued pressure and capital is shifted from U.S. Treasuries to gold. Goldman warned that waning Fed independence could trigger higher inflation and damage to the dollar and stock market. A price of $5,000 implies upside of about 40% from current prices.
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“We estimate that if 1% of the privately owned US Treasury market were to flow into gold, the gold price would rise to nearly $5,000 an ounce, assuming everything else constant,” analysts at the bank said. “As a result, gold remains our highest-conviction long recommendation in the commodities space.”
Gold Gains Appeal as Fed Independence Faces Pressure
Gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset, meaning that investors flock to the precious metal during times of economic uncertainty. A lack of independence at the Fed could risk disruptions to the economic system and the confidence in U.S. debt.
President Trump has pressured the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell to slash interest rates and has also attempted to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Experts warn that these moves could mark the starting point of deteriorating Fed independence.
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