The gold price could surge to $6,000 an ounce before the end of the year if President Trump keeps “shrugging off” the dramatic decline in the value of the U.S. dollar.
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U.S. Dollar Driver
The spot gold price broke through the $5,200 level for the first time ever today and came close to toppling the $5,300 mark. The main driver was the weakness in the U.S. dollar, which slid to a near four-year low because of continued geopolitical concerns from Canada to the Middle East and Ukraine and ahead of today’s latest interest-rate decision by the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures it against a basket of other currencies, dropped to 96.08. It followed President Trump’s remarks that the dollar’s sliding value wasn’t a concern, and in fact was “great.” Presumably, because it makes the lives of U.S. exporters easier thus reducing the nation’s trade deficit.
Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said: “This was not a policy signal. It was a presidential shrug — and in foreign exchange, White House indifference moves price faster than easing cycles ever do.”
Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA added: “Gold’s rise is due to the very strong indirect correlation with the dollar and [President] Trump’s remark to a casual question about the dollar, which implied that there is a broad-based consensus within the White House to have a weaker greenback going forward.”
$6,000 By the end of 2026
Gold is expected to keep rocketing as investors seek out a safe haven in uncertain times.
“A weaker US currency is a headwind for the large contingent in the FTSE 100 index which derive their revenue from across the Atlantic – although it continues to provide support to dollar-denominated gold,” said Russ Mould, investment director at the UK’s AJ Bell. “At this rate, gold bugs will be eyeing the $6,000 mark before the end of the year – with the 15% advance required to hit this level less than the advance bullion has already managed in the first month of 2026.”
Indeed, as can be seen above, the gold price is already up 17% in the year to date. Gold-related ETFs such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) have also done well with a similar 17% hike so far this year.
One factor which tends to help gold is lower interest rates. However, the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the meeting today.
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