The gold price will be lacking the Midas touch in the months to come with forecasts that it is set to plunge well below $3,000.
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Less Shiny
A new note from Citi (C) said that it expects the gold price to fall back to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026. It currently stands at nearly $3,300, having been propelled higher in 2025 thanks to a number of drivers from Trump’s tariffs to the Middle East conflict.
That’s because gold has traditionally been seen as a safe haven for investors in troubled times.
Citi expects the price of gold to consolidate around $3,100 to $3,500 per ounce in the third quarter of this year, as prices weaken due to the recent cease-fire in the Middle East and a rosier outlook for global economic growth. Even Trump’s tariffs are losing some of their sting as countries from around the world either sign or continue negotiating new trade deals with the U.S.
Take Insurance
“We expect continued price consolidation. We may have already seen the highs at $3,500/oz in late April as the gold market deficit is peaking soon if not already,” Citi said in the note. “The market will then weaken driven by lower investment demand. We strongly recommend that gold producers take insurance against downside in prices from current levels.”
It is a far cry from some analysts’ expectations earlier in the year that the gold price could soar on the road towards $4,000.
ETFS which have shone in the year to date may fall victim to the drop in sentiment. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which is exposed to the physical holding of gold bullion, is up 26% in the year-to-date. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up 49%.
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