If you look at Ford (F) right now, it is hard not to feel a bit torn. On the bright side, we have a notably cleaner story taking shape, with hybrids carrying the earnings and a cheaper EV strategy. There is also a credible push into software and “eyes-off” autonomy by 2028.
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On the other hand, the balance sheet remains heavy. Any stumble in execution or a change in the macro setup can hurt more than today’s valuation suggests. So I end up neutral. The potential is real, the multiple looks broadly fair, but the liabilities side of the balance sheet stops this from being an easy, conviction-long story.
Eyes-Off Tech for the Many Presented at CES 2026
Last week’s CES 2026 gave Ford a much-needed opportunity to turn its autonomy story into something concrete. BlueCruise, now a Level 2 hands-free system, is being developed to reach Level 3 “eyes-off” driving in 2028, launching on a new Universal Electric Vehicle (UEV) platform rather than a six-figure halo SUV. The first UEV will be a midsize electric pickup in 2027 at about $30,000, a foil to Cadillac’s Escalade IQ, which starts around $130,000.
Cost is a significant part of the discussion here. Ford is transitioning to a centralized “vehicle brain” and a zonal electrical architecture that replaces dozens of control units with a single high-end computer. Since it’s building the BlueCruise stack in-house on this hardware, the company says it can deliver more capable driver-assistance features at roughly 30% lower cost than a supplier’s system, bringing Level 2 and eventually Level 3 to mass-market cars rather than only six-figure flagships.
On top of that sits an AI voice assistant, set to debut first in Ford and Lincoln apps in 2026 and inside vehicles from 2027. Paired with BlueCruise, it seems to turn the car into a subscription service for autonomy, navigation, data, and fleet services. The one-off vehicle sale model is likely to start fading out from here. The combination of intelligence plus affordable EVs could be Ford’s best answer to Chinese value brands and upmarket Western rivals.
Hybrids as Ford’s Cash Engine
In the meantime, however, the bridge from that Las Vegas vision to reality is hybrids and trucks. U.S. sales in 2025 rose 6% last year to about 2.2 million vehicles, marking Ford’s best since 2019. Notably, hybrid volumes jumped nearly 22% to a record 228,072 units. Maverick sales climbed about 18% to 155,051, and the F-150 Hybrid hit around 84,900, keeping its crown as America’s best-selling full-size hybrid truck and proving that “partial” electrification sells when the monthly maths works.
If we’re being honest, the EV line is much less flattering. Battery-electric sales fell 14.1% for the year, as tax credits vanished and charging remained patchy. Also, F-150 Lightning volumes dropped by 18.5%, while E-Transit volumes plunged by almost 60%. Those numbers underpinned a $19.5 billion writedown and the decision to scrap several large EV programs, including the all-electric Lightning, in favour of hybrids and smaller, cheaper EVs with clearer economics.
That pivot is why hybrids are now of much strategic importance for the company. Profits from Ford Blue and Pro, such as the F-Series, Maverick, commercial vans, and their hybrid variants, essentially fund the UEV platform, the electronics overhaul, and the BlueCruise roadmap. So, Hybrids are the cash bridge that lets Ford keep spending on software and autonomy while the industry works through its first EV boom-and-bust cycle.
Ford is a Cyclical Name With a Tech Option
Looking at the stock price, it’s evident the market has started to reward this pivot. Shares surged ~36% in 2025. And yet, even after that run, the stock sits at about 13x FY2025’s consensus EPS of $1.07 (Q4 scheduled for Feb 20th), and 9.6x FY2026’s consensus EPS of $1.48. I don’t think these multiples are demanding if the company can turn its software into recurring cash flow. Of course, it’s natural for an auto manufacturer to trade at single-digit multiples given the cyclical nature of the business, but this could gradually change from here.
What could break the case is Ford’s massive debt and execution. Ford carries over $160 billion of total debt. Much of it is in Ford Credit, but the group remains sensitive to rates, credit markets, and any prolonged U.S. downturn. Add unproven demand for paid eyes-off capability and uneven regulation around Level 3 approvals, and this is not a re-rating story that can survive many serious mistakes.
Is Ford a Good Stock to Buy?
Today, Wall Street is mixed on the stock. Ford features a Hold consensus rating, based on three Buys, eleven Holds, and one Sell. Nevertheless, Ford’s average stock price target of $13.59 implies the stock may have run ahead of itself and is expected to fall ~3% in 2026.
Ford’s Digital Pivot Comes With Balance Sheet Baggage
Ford is in the midst of modernizing a very old business into something more software- and tech-driven. For now, hybrids and trucks are doing what they need to do—supporting earnings and buying time for a cheaper EV strategy and that 2028 “eyes-off” autonomy roadmap to mature.
The question is whether the stock is a buy after the recent rally. In my view, the valuation still looks broadly reasonable for that mix of strengths. But the balance sheet remains heavy enough that it’s hard to get overly aggressive here. For me, it’s still a hold.