Firefly Aerospace (FLY) stock surged over 24% on Thursday after a robust Q3 earnings report and upbeat analyst commentary. The upside reflects confidence in its Alpha rocket relaunch program and hypersonics growth. Thus, Firefly’s Alpha rocket plays a key role in its defense plans, and getting it back in action could lead to new deals and lift the stock further.
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FLY’s Q3 Earnings Snapshot
The company posted $30.8 million in revenue, nearly doubling year-over-year, driven by lunar data sales and momentum from its Electra mission. Also, full-year guidance was raised to between $150 million and $158 million.
It must be noted that backlog climbed to $1.3 billion, including $170 million from SciTec, pointing to long-term visibility.
Analysts Optimistic about FLY’s Growth
Following the results, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield reiterated a Buy rating and $65 price target. The analyst highlighted Firefly’s plan to resume Alpha rocket launches in late Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026, a key milestone after resolving engine issues that had grounded the program. Canfield also pointed to SciTec’s $170 million backlog as a sign of strong growth visibility.
At the same time, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu upgraded Firefly stock to Buy from Hold, but trimmed the price target to $30 from $40. The analyst sees improved visibility for Firefly’s upcoming Flight 7, now that the Alpha rocket’s first-stage engine issue has been resolved. The launch, expected later this year or in early 2026, could act as a major catalyst and “change the narrative” around the company.
Yu also pointed to “multiple opportunities” tied to the Golden Dome project, suggesting further upside potential.
What Is the Projection for FLY Stock?
Turning to Wall Street, FLY stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on five Buys and two Holds assigned in the last three months. At $49.43, the average Firefly price target implies a 130.12% upside potential.
