Fidelity Macro Director Calls $65K Bitcoin Bottom for 2026 as ‘Bitcoin Winter’ Approaches

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) may have already closed the door on its current four-year cycle after hitting an all-time high of $125,000 in October 2025. According to Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, the market is likely entering a year-long “Bitcoin winter” that could see prices slide to a bottom between $65,000 and $75,000 by 2026.

While Timmer remains a “secular bull” on the asset’s long-term future, his warning signals a major divergence from analysts who believe institutional demand has permanently broken the asset’s historical boom-and-bust cycle.

Timmer Signals the End of the Four-Year Halving Cycle

Timmer argues that Bitcoin’s price action is finally aligning with its historical four-year patterns, despite the introduction of spot ETFs and massive Wall Street participation. He notes that Bitcoin “winters” typically last about a year, which positions 2026 as a necessary “off year” for the asset to find its support floor and clear out speculative froth. By predicting a floor as low as $65,000, a nearly 48% drop from the October peak, Timmer is preparing investors for a period of stagnation, suggesting that the euphoric phase of the post-halving rally has officially exhausted itself in terms of “price and time.”

Delphi Digital Bulls Bet on a 2026 Price Rebound

This cautious outlook is meeting significant resistance from crypto research firms like Delphi Digital. Co-founder Tom Shaughnessy argues that the market is currently suffering from a “one-time disastrous liquidation event” that saw $19 billion wiped out in October, rather than a fundamental end to the bull market.

He believes that once the leverage is fully flushed out, Bitcoin will “rubber-band” back toward new all-time highs in 2026. This bull case is built on the belief that fundamental industry progress, including deeper Wall Street integration and spot ETF liquidity, is now more powerful than the four-year cycles of the past.

Policy Implementation Becomes the 2026 Price Floor

While the price remains a point of contention, the regulatory landscape for 2026 is becoming increasingly concrete. Policy experts like Cathy Yoon point to the coming year as a critical period for the actual implementation of stablecoin legislation and institutional financial infrastructure. Even if the market experiences the “winter” Timmer expects, the focus is projected to shift from speculative trading to the “financial plumbing” of the digital asset economy.

This regulatory progress is expected to act as an institutional safety net, ensuring that even a price drawdown is supported by rigorous disclosures and the integration of crypto into global payment systems.

Key Takeaway

The bottom line is that the market is caught between the “Old World” of four-year cycles and the “New World” of institutional permanency. Timmer is betting that the math of the past still matters, while the bulls believe we have graduated to a secular “supercycle” where Wall Street money acts as a permanent floor. 2026 will be the ultimate test of whether Bitcoin is still a cyclical rollercoaster or if it has finally become a stable, institutional-grade macro asset.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $87,918.60.