Delivery giant FedEx (FDX) is scheduled to announce its results for the first quarter of Fiscal 2026 after the market closes on Thursday, September 18. FDX stock is down more than 16% year-to-date, as the company is under pressure due to intense competition and a challenging business backdrop amid tariff woes and macro uncertainties. Wall Street expects FedEx to report earnings per share (EPS) of $3.64, reflecting a 1.1% year-over-year growth.
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Meanwhile, revenue is projected to come in at $21.67 billion, reflecting a 0.4% increase compared to the prior-year quarter. Despite subdued revenues, FedEx’s earnings are expected to rise due to the company’s aggressive cost reduction initiatives.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of FedEx’s Q1 FY26 Earnings
Recently, Goldman Sachs analyst Jordan Alliger lowered his price target for FedEx stock to $276 from $290 and reiterated a Buy rating. Alliger stated that near-term forecasting is currently challenging due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their potential impacts on global trade. The 4-star analyst thinks that domestic package volume likely “ebbed” as the company progressed through the fiscal first quarter, with the pull-forward in demand waning. However, he thinks that B2B volumes remained “fairly static at best” in the quarter.
Aside from tariffs, headwinds related to the end of de minimis exemptions led Alliger to lower his Q1 FY26 EPS forecast to $3.50 from $3.75 and adopt a more cautious stance on earnings for the remainder of the calendar year. The de minimis exemption allowed goods valued under $800 to enter the U.S. without paying duties or taxes, and with expedited clearance. However, the U.S. government ended this exemption on August 29. Consequently, even small shipments, regardless of their value or origin, are now subject to import duties, taxes, and fees. For FY26, Alliger now projects EPS of $18.00, down from the previous estimate of $18.80.
Meanwhile, Bank of America analyst Ken Hoexter downgraded FedEx stock to Hold from Buy, citing increased pressure on volumes and costs following the end of de minimis exemptions for shipments from China, Hong Kong, and the rest of the world.
Hoexter highlighted that the end of de minimis exemptions will impact international shipments, which represent approximately 16% of rival United Parcel Service’s (UPS) revenues and 17% of FedEx’s top line. The analyst lowered his Q1 FY26, full-year FY26, and FY27 EPS by 7%, 6%, and 7%, respectively, citing de minimis volume and margin pressure and sub-seasonal read-throughs from less-than-truckload (LTL) peers.
AI Analyst Is Cautious on FDX Stock Ahead of Q1 Print
Interestingly, TipRanks’ AI Analyst has assigned an Outperform rating to FedEx stock with a price target of $252, indicating 10.6% upside potential. TipRanks’ AI analysis reflects the company’s strong financial performance and effective cost management efforts. Moreover, FDX stock’s valuation is attractive, with a low P/E ratio and a solid dividend yield.
The positive sentiment from the earnings call further supports the AI analyst’s favorable rating, despite ongoing trade challenges. However, technical analysis shows mixed signals, indicating potential short-term volatility.
Options Traders Anticipate a Major Move on FedEx’s Q1 Earnings
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting about an 8.1% move in either direction in FDX stock in reaction to Q1 FY26 results.
Is FedEx Stock a Sell or Buy?
Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on FedEx stock based on 16 Buys, four Holds, and two Sell recommendations. The average FDX stock price target of $266.59 indicates 17% upside potential from current levels.
