Oil and gas giant Exxon Mobil (XOM) is scheduled to announce its results for the first quarter of 2025 before the market opens on Friday, May 2. XOM stock is essentially flat year-to-date but has declined 9% over the past year. Investors will focus on management’s commentary about the demand backdrop amid fears of an economic slowdown due to tariff wars. Analysts expect Exxon to report EPS (earnings per share) of $1.75 for Q1 2025, reflecting a 15% year-over-year decline due to lower energy prices. Revenue is expected to rise 4% to $86.35 billion,
However, Q1 2025 EPS is expected to grow compared to the previous quarter’s earnings of $1.67 per share. In an update provided by Exxon earlier this month, the company indicated that its Q1 earnings are expected to benefit from higher crude oil and natural gas prices and increased oil refining margins compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.
According to Reuters, benchmark Brent crude prices averaged $74.98 per barrel during Q1 2025, up 1.3% from the prior quarter but down 9% year-over-year. Further, U.S. natural gas prices increased 30% sequentially due to higher demand from a cold winter.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of Exxon’s Q1 Earnings
Earlier this month, TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman lowered the price target for Exxon Mobil stock to $120 from $125, while maintaining a Buy rating. The 4-star analyst stated that XOM stock remains a “Top Pick” for TD Cowen. He expects the company to maintain its buybacks well into 2026 at current market prices, underscoring the competitive nature of its asset base despite being overindexed to weak chemicals compared to the peer group. The analyst explained that he lowered his price target for Exxon stock to reflect lower earnings from the chemicals business in 2025 and 2026.
Also, UBS analyst Josh Silverstein lowered his price target for Exxon Mobil stock to $131 from $135 and maintained a Buy rating. Following Exxon’s Q1 update, the 4-star analyst lowered his EPS forecast to $1.72 from $1.75, noting that this is below the $1.81 EPS implied by the company’s 8-K filing, which did not include the Nigeria joint venture, Argentina, and Fos-sur-Mer refinery divestitures and a $600 million quarter-over-quarter headwind related to the absence of asset management and tax impacts.
Here’s What Options Traders Anticipate
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting about a 3.3% move in either direction in XOM stock in reaction to Q1 results.
Is Exxon Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Exxon Mobil stock based on 11 Buys and five Hold recommendations. The average XOM stock price target of $128.79 implies about 19% upside potential from current levels.
