Ethereum (ETH-USD) is currently locked in a high-stakes struggle to hold the $3,000 psychological barrier, as a toxic combination of vanishing network activity and aggressive whale selling threatens to trigger a 22% collapse. After oscillating near the flatline for three weeks, the second-largest cryptocurrency is showing signs of structural exhaustion, failing to reclaim its 50-day EMA of $3,260 while on-chain fees have plummeted 45% in the last 30 days.
Claim 50% Off TipRanks Premium and Invest with Confidence
- Unlock hedge-fund level data and powerful investing tools designed to help you make smarter, sharper decisions
- Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis so your portfolio is always positioned for maximum potential
The bearish momentum is being fueled by a historic exodus of long-term holders, who have offloaded over 847,000 ETH (approx. $2.5 billion) in the past month, the largest monthly supply drop from this group since January 2021. While Bitcoin eyes the $100,000 milestone, Ethereum’s network utility is cooling rapidly, with active addresses hitting their lowest levels since May 2025 as users migrate toward higher-velocity chains like Solana.
ETH Defends the $2,800 Price Level
Technical analysts warn that ETH has officially validated a bear flag on the daily chart after failing to hold the $3,200 level. This pattern suggests that the recent sideways “recovery” was merely a brief pause before a continuation of the downtrend that began in late November. If the current support at $2,800, where 5.8 million ETH were recently acquired, is lost, the measured target for this move sits at a grim $2,300.
The derivative markets are offering little hope for a rescue, as the futures premium has compressed to just 3%, indicating a total lack of demand for leveraged long positions. Even last week’s brief spike to $3,750 failed to reset sentiment, as traders now view every bounce as an opportunity to exit before the “weekend pause” or further China-driven mining crackdowns can trigger more liquidations.
Long-Term Forecasts for Ethereum Remain Bullish
Long-term forecasts for Ethereum remain surprisingly aggressive. Based on consensus data from 12 major analysts, the average price target for the end of 2025 remains at $6,124, suggesting a massive 107% upside if the network can survive this volatility. Standard Chartered and Fundstrat maintain even bolder “Buy” convictions, with targets ranging as high as $7,500 for late 2026.
However, the path to $7,000 must first clear a massive wall of resistance between $3,100 and $3,250, where nearly 6 million ETH were purchased by investors who are now “underwater” and likely to sell at break-even. Until Ethereum can decisively close above the $3,300 flip zone, the market remains skewed toward the bears, with 24 out of 30 short-term indicators signaling a “Sell” or “Strong Sell” as network participation continues to bleed.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is sitting at $2,964.97.
