The Ethereum chart is starting to look nervous. After rallying to retest a critical resistance zone near $4,000, the second-largest crypto by market cap is now facing its second-largest burst of sell pressure in history. The question now is whether this is just a pause or the start of something much worse.
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Heavy Selling Hits ETH Just Below $4K
Ethereum’s Net Taker Volume just plunged to -$418.8 million, according to CryptoQuant. That means traders sold around 115,400 more ETH than they bought — all through market orders, which typically indicate urgency. It’s the second-largest one-day net sell imbalance ever recorded on Ethereum.
In simpler words, traders weren’t waiting for good prices, instead they just wanted out.
This kind of selling, known as “taker” volume, is aggressive by nature. It tells us that people are hitting the sell button quickly, sometimes out of fear or a desire to lock in profits before prices fall. Historically, when taker sell volume surges like this, it’s often a signal that Ethereum is near a local top.
The last time this happened at this scale was in December 2024, right before ETH dropped by more than 66% in just a few months.
This Is a Familiar Pattern at a Dangerous Price Zone
The setup is eerily similar. Ethereum is once again stalling out between $3,600 and $4,000, a price range that has proven to be a brutal resistance zone since 2021. Back in December, when ETH approached this ceiling, the combination of extreme selling, overbought technicals and a weak macro backdrop led to a cascade of sell-offs.
Today, we’re seeing the same technical cocktail. First, Net Taker Volume has gone deeply negative, reflecting significant urgency among sellers. Then there’s the RSI, which is rolling over after reaching overbought levels, suggesting the recent momentum is fading. And finally, price remains stuck under a resistance level Ethereum hasn’t convincingly broken in years, signaling that upside exhaustion may be setting in.
ETH Could Drop 25% to 35% From Here
If history repeats, Ethereum could be headed back toward key long-term support levels. The 50-week and 200-week exponential moving averages, currently sitting near $2,736 and $2,333, are the most likely landing zones.
That puts a downside target of 25% to 35% below current levels. It wouldn’t be unprecedented. In fact, the exact same thing happened less than a year ago.
A fall to those EMAs wouldn’t necessarily kill the bull case for Ethereum long-term. But it would remind investors that crypto still moves in fast, brutal cycles; and that overheated markets don’t stay hot forever.
So, Is the Top In?
It might be. Ethereum isn’t breaking down yet, but the pressure is rising. And the signs are stacking up fast: heavy market sells, strong resistance, and cooling momentum.
Furthermore, if ETH wants to avoid another collapse, it needs to flip $4,000 into support and prove this rally still has legs. Otherwise, September could bring a very different tone to the Ethereum narrative.
Stay cautious. The next few weeks could decide where this cycle goes next.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is sitting at $3,606.05.
