Discount store chain Dollar Tree (DLTR) is scheduled to announce its results for the third quarter of Fiscal 2025 on December 3. DLTR stock has risen 47% year-to-date, as investors expect the company’s prospects to improve, supported by its turnaround efforts. According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about an 8.25% move in either direction in DLTR stock in reaction to Q3 FY25 results.
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This implied move is way higher than DLTR stock’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of 2.41% over the past two quarters.
Wall Street expects DLTR’s Q3 earnings per share (EPS) to fall 2.7% year-over-year to $1.09 on revenue of $4.70 billion. Note that the company completed the sale of its Family Dollar store chain in July 2025. Investors await management’s commentary on the demand backdrop amid macro uncertainties and the impact of tariffs.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of DLTR’s Q3 Earnings
Heading into Q3 earnings, Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane downgraded Dollar Tree stock from Buy to Sell and slashed the price target from $133 to $103. McShane noted DLTR’s improved comparable sales and positioning, driven by the multi-price initiative and enhanced store conditions. While the 4-star analyst sees further scope for margin improvement over the long term, she thinks DLTR stock already reflects better fundamentals.
Consequently, McShane contends that a further rise in DLTR stock could be challenging due to worries about lower-income consumers and a “declining consumer perception” of price and value. The top-rated analyst prefers other discounters with improving value propositions and strong merchandising like Ollie’s Bargain (OLLI) and Five Below (FIVE).
Meanwhile, Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma increased his price target for DLTR stock to $103 from $100 following the company’s Investor Day event, while maintaining a Hold rating. Ma noted that compared to the guidance at the 2023 Investor Day, Dollar Tree has softened its comparable sales growth estimates to 3%-4% for Fiscal 2025-2028, down from mid-single-digit growth for Fiscal 2023-2025.
Ma contends that while the new top-line target is not “overly aggressive,” he is cautious, given the recent slowdown in comparable sales growth. Moreover, he expects Dollar Tree to face tougher comparisons when macro tailwinds fade and generate below-trend comparable sales growth of 2.3%, before recovering to the 3% level.
Is DLTR a Good Stock to Buy?
Currently, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Dollar Tree stock based on 11 Holds, eight Buys, and four Sell recommendations. The average DLTR stock price target of $109.47 indicates that shares are fully priced at current levels.
