Shares of Dole (DOLE) have rallied 22% over the past year, outperforming many peers as the fruit and vegetable giant continues to deliver impressive financial results despite emerging trade challenges. This strong performance has bolstered investor confidence and helped drive the stock’s upward momentum.
Operational Improvement
Dole is an iconic producer and marketer of fresh fruit and vegetables engaged in growing, sourcing, distributing, and marketing a wide variety of fresh produce. Its core products include bananas, pineapples, berries, and an array of other fruits and vegetables, which are supplied to retail, wholesale, and foodservice sectors across the globe.
The fruit producer has recently benefited from enhanced logistical efficiencies and a healthier supply-demand balance, particularly in its core fruit business across European and emerging markets. The company has reported expanding profit margins, robust cash flow, and above-average returns on equity.
Tariff Challenges
However, Dole now faces headwinds from recent trade policy changes. The U.S. implemented a new 10% baseline tariff on nearly all imported goods in April 2025, potentially increasing Dole’s costs for packaging, equipment, and some produce items, depending on sourcing.
Further, a proposed U.S. policy would impose substantial fees on Chinese-built cargo ships entering American ports – directly affecting Dole’s banana transportation fleet. Since bananas cannot be grown domestically at scale and operate on thin margins, these increased costs would likely result in higher prices at grocery stores.
The company benefits from its global diversification strategy. Dole’s worldwide sourcing and logistics network allows it to adapt to shifting trade patterns and minimize tariff exposure in any region. While Dole has warned about potential supply chain disruptions and price increases, particularly for bananas, its diversified business model positions it better than some competitors.
The situation likely means higher produce prices ahead, especially for imported fruits like bananas, and margin pressure remains a concern as the company balances cost increases against consumers’ price sensitivity in the current economic environment.
Analyst Forecast
Dole has delivered significant positive revenue and earnings surprises in recent quarters. Most recently, for Q4 2024, the company beat top and bottom-line expectations by posting revenue of $2.17 billion, beating analyst expectations by $120 million, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.16, which beat by $0.08.
Despite the recent positive performance, analysts following the company have taken a cautious approach to the stock. Dole is rated a Moderate Sell based on the most recent analyst recommendations. The average price target for DOLE stock is $14.00, which represents a minimal upside of 0.72% from current levels.
