Holiday shoppers are expected to spend heavily this year, but far fewer Americans may find the usual seasonal jobs that help support that surge. As layoff announcements continue and the unemployment rate inches higher, multiple data sources suggest that holiday hiring could be the weakest it has been in more than a decade. Indeed, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that seasonal hiring plans through October hit their lowest level since the firm began tracking them in 2012.
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Separately, the National Retail Federation also told reporters that while consumer spending should remain solid, retailers may add the fewest temporary workers in more than 15 years. More specifically, companies are expected to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal employees, well below the 442,000 that were added in 2024. At the same time, interest in seasonal work continues to rise, as it’s up 27% from last year, according to Cory Stahle of the Indeed Hiring Lab.
However, job seekers are competing for postings that are below pre-pandemic levels. Stahle noted that overall seasonal opportunities remain far scarcer than in recent years, with retail showing the sharpest decline. In addition, September’s federal jobs data showed that retail employment remained flat, and large chains such as Target (TGT) have stayed quiet about their holiday staffing plans. Meanwhile, Walmart (WMT) said that its strategy remains to give extra holiday hours to existing employees rather than hiring new temporary workers.
Which Retail Stock Is the Better Buy?
Turning to Wall Street, out of the two stocks mentioned above, analysts think that Walmart stock has more room to run than Target. In fact, Walmart’s price target of $121.92 per share implies almost 12% upside versus Target’s 8.5%.
