CVX, OXY, XOM: Oil Prices Could Fall Below $50, Warns S&P Global

Oil prices could fall below $50 per barrel this year, according to a new outlook published by S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGI).

Oil prices, which are currently hovering around $65 a barrel, could fall in coming months as a flood of new supply from the OPEC+ cartel comes onto the market, states the report. The projection comes with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, at $64.91 per barrel, and Brent crude oil, the global standard, at $66.78.

Oil prices have been on a bull run lately as global fuel demand remains strong. However, S&P Global doesn’t expect the momentum to last as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) adds more production. Global oil production is expected to rise by 2.2 million barrels per day in the second half of this year, compared to just 390,000 barrels of oil demand growth.

Weak Demand Growth

In fact, demand growth in 2025 is expected to be at its lowest level since 2001, excluding the Covid-19 pandemic and global financial crisis, says S&P Global. As such, crude oil prices, both WTI and Brent, could drop into the $40 per barrel range later this year. By the end of 2026, U.S. oil production could be down 640,000 barrels per day from what it was in mid-2025, marking the first decline in a decade.

Lower crude prices will likely cause U.S. drillers such as Chevron (CVX), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and ExxonMobil (XOM) to slow production and start taking oil rigs out of commission, says S&P Global Commodity Insights. The stock of Chevron, one of the biggest U.S. oil majors, is down 0.32% this year.

Is CVX Stock a Buy?

The stock of Chevron has a consensus Moderate Buy rating among 18 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on 10 Buy, six Hold, and two Sell recommendations assigned in the past three months. The average CVX price target of $159.50 implies 13.27% upside from current levels.

Read more analyst ratings on CVX stock